taca
Posts: 29
Likes: 8
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Post by taca on Apr 20, 2016 13:26:31 GMT
My Average Return has suddenly gone from just over 10% to -3%. There hasn't been another default in this time. Any ideas?
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Post by betterthanworking on Apr 20, 2016 13:53:25 GMT
Bad luck taca — mine has just gone up from 10.2 to 21.52, which is about where it was before recent defaults. I noticed this yesterday, and assumed that the basis of calculation had been changed, but it definitely doesn't seem correct.
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Post by dodgeydave on Apr 20, 2016 14:20:32 GMT
I have gone from a negative to a + 5.39 %
Miracles do happen
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baldpate
Member of DD Central
Posts: 548
Likes: 406
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Post by baldpate on Apr 20, 2016 16:12:16 GMT
This party must be by invitation only - mine hasn't budged !
I feel discriminated against.
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oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,087
Likes: 3,233
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Post by oldgrumpy on Apr 20, 2016 17:06:57 GMT
This party must be by invitation only - mine hasn't budged ! I feel discriminated against. Wot do you expect with your haircut?
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Post by Reged on Apr 20, 2016 20:52:46 GMT
I've suddenly gone from just over 18% to -55.5%. And all my transaction gains have disappeared. What happened?
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Post by danraj on Apr 20, 2016 21:20:47 GMT
We've recently updated the way we calculate the Net Return figure, but we're still refining it for various user cases. You can read more about the update here: www.rebuildingsociety.com/new-net-return-formula-works-harder/We have added the ability for you to download your returns series data click (Export CSV) each line in your series represents a change in capital employed, i.e. a day you added or withdrew funds. Its an improvement on what we had, but its imperfect in different ways for different users. If you email support@rebuildingsociety.com with your user ID (reference when adding funds) we will look into your individual calculation and see about reviewing your data. One known issue, is that we still need to review the dates of defaults because the default may be reflected too early in your series (i.e. when you loaned to the business, and not when the default actually occurred) This artificially brings forward the loss, which carries forward. We'll be realigning the default dates on microloans and for each loan we adjust, we'll potentially adjust your net return. Also, if you had a promotional credit early on and have reinvested this money repeatedly then the compounding effect may show a considerably higher return than it was with the previous calculation.
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Post by dodgeydave on Apr 21, 2016 11:15:15 GMT
I have gone from a negative to a + 5.39 % Miracles do happen Today i am at +9.2%
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,874
Likes: 7,919
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Post by SteveT on Apr 21, 2016 14:04:42 GMT
[Mod hat off]
This is more fun (and certainly more profitable!) than actually investing. Yesterday my Average Return was around 2% (better than -7% a day or two earlier). This morning it was up to 7% and now it's over 15%. What is more, the Defaults total on my Dashboard has roughly halved; sadly however, clicking "See Break Down" shows all the same defaulted loans as before, so it's just the total that's screwy.
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Post by danraj on Apr 21, 2016 14:33:13 GMT
The defaults on the tile now reflect your probable loss. The modal shows you the total defaults and the probablility of recovery.
There is a missing period in the series for most users, which is the most recent.
We've provided the ability for you to download your CSV data, so you can perform your own analysis.
There is a positive jump in return for most users, since we're now including the benefit of compounded returns and not considering defaults to be a complete loss, since this money is still owed to you and is expected to eventually be recovered on some loans.
If you want us to anslyse or explain a specific part in calculating your Net Return, I'd be happy to look into if for you.
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baldpate
Member of DD Central
Posts: 548
Likes: 406
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Post by baldpate on Apr 21, 2016 14:40:32 GMT
I think the change which decreases the amount showing in the Default tile happened only today (or maybe later yesterday) - it now shows the total estimated loss on defaults (i.e. after taking into consideration the estimated% recovery on individual defaults shown when you click to 'See Break Down') - previously the tile showed the full amount at risk. The estimated loss on default (rather than the full amount at risk) is now also being used in the data series from which the new Net Return is being calculated : that change is almost certainly what accounts for the sudden rise in NR that I have seen on my dashboard today. Two of my four defaults have correct 'date of default' ascribed to them; the other two are incorrectly ascribed to the date the loan was incepted (i.e. the start of the loan). danraj refers to this issue in his post (4 above). If any of your defaults show wildly wrong 'Last repayment' dates, you can expect the NR to change as these errors are corrected. EDIT: I think this post crossed with the one immediately above from danraj - I made a cup of tea in the middle of composing it
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,874
Likes: 7,919
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Post by SteveT on Apr 21, 2016 14:44:58 GMT
The defaults on the tile now reflect your probable loss. The modal shows you the total defaults and the probablility of recovery. There is a missing period in the series for most users, which is the most recent. We've provided the ability for you to download your CSV data, so you can perform your own analysis. There is a positive jump in return for most users, since we're now including the benefit of compounded returns and not considering defaults to be a complete loss, since this money is still owed to you and is expected to eventually be recovered on some loans. If you want us to anslyse or explain a specific part in calculating your Net Return, I'd be happy to look into if for you. If you're now informally "writing off" a portion of our defaulted loans on the Dashboard (without actually declaring them to be a bad debt) then you need to change the name to "Projected Losses" and add a "Projected Recoveries" figure to the Dashboard, else it will never reconcile! The definition of a defaulted loan is widely understood in the industry and should include all capital invested in the loan, not an arbitrary portion of it.
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Post by danraj on Apr 21, 2016 15:47:30 GMT
Fair point. Just before I change it to 'Probable Loss', are there any other preferred labels for the 'Defaults' tile??
What we are working towards is having a separation between "Performing Loans" and "Non-Performing Loans" which will include invested capital in arrears along with defaults.
The current transitional step attempts to educate many new investors who perceive Defaults to be a loss.
For the record, we're not actually writing anything off, we're just giving people an indicative understanding and influencing the calculation of the Net Return.
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Apr 21, 2016 16:05:31 GMT
Fair point. Just before I change it to 'Probable Loss', are there any other preferred labels for the 'Defaults' tile?? What we are working towards is having a separation between "Performing Loans" and "Non-Performing Loans" which will include invested capital in arrears along with defaults. The current transitional step attempts to educate many new investors who perceive Defaults to be a loss. For the record, we're not actually writing anything off, we're just giving people an indicative understanding and influencing the calculation of the Net Return. Sorry but "probable loss" or any other projection along those lines is completely useless & misleading; I want to see the total value of all defaults (as before) & as you recover actual cash by all means reduce this figure. If you also want to produce some kind of projected figure please do it in addition to the actual real position - I understand that you hope/expect to recover some defaults, the more the better, but until that cash is actually credited to investors accounts it is imaginary & non existent so I do not want it to be used to massage the figures to give an unfairly positive slant.
What % of total platforms defaults have you actually recovered so far? How does this compare to the 40% you seem to be projecting? Rebs needs to build a recovery reputation & track record before taking some expected figure & using it as representative. I have every faith in your ability to achieve some recovery but as to how much that is down to you to prove by depositing cash back into investors accounts.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Apr 21, 2016 16:47:27 GMT
Just to say that my 'average return' gross/net has now moved into the realm of 'faintly plausible', which it wasn't before (I had a negative net rate, despite being (just) in profit). When I get a minute I'll go run it through the number mill and see how close it is .. however the fact that 'defaults' are not all defaulted (some are, some are just suspended atm, some seem to be partly defaulted, 'with great expectations') does make it still a trifle unclear. But it's definitely better.
We still need an improvement on the DD on new loan requests though. I know there's a limit to what you can do on the profit margins on a few £10k (compared to what you can do on the profit margin on the odd £m or two), but people asking for a loan and 'forgetting to mention' the ones they have with other platforms ought not be too hard to spot.
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