benaj
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Trump
Jul 17, 2024 13:04:52 GMT
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Post by benaj on Jul 17, 2024 13:04:52 GMT
Well, I believe ONS only estimates some of these numbers. So no official accurate numbers. đ
The best hope is when ONS overestimates the actual number a lot.
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michaelc
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Jul 17, 2024 13:23:48 GMT
Post by michaelc on Jul 17, 2024 13:23:48 GMT
We're not there yet of course but we're certainly moving in that direction. With the number of Muslims in Europe predicted to increase significantly in the near future, the UK's share of Muslims in the population could rise from 6.3 percent in 2016 to 17.2 percent by 2050.www.statista.com/topics/4765/islam-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/"could". 2016 was 8 years ago. 2050 is 26 years time. So we're just over 30% into that time interval. To be on-track for that prediction, the UK Islamic population would now have to be 9.65%. The 2021 census said 6.0%, or 6.5% if you take just England and Wales. Interesting because I thought your argument was going to be that when the UK becomes a predominantly Islamic country, that doesn't mean it will be an Islamist one. Do you anticipate its politics to be more like the sunnis in Saudi Arabia, shias in Iran or God Forbid the Islamists in Afganistan? Or do you predict the UK will be more "moderate" (i.e. more aligned with western values) such as in Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia for example ?
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adrianc
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Jul 17, 2024 13:30:20 GMT
Post by adrianc on Jul 17, 2024 13:30:20 GMT
"could". 2016 was 8 years ago. 2050 is 26 years time. So we're just over 30% into that time interval. To be on-track for that prediction, the UK Islamic population would now have to be 9.65%. The 2021 census said 6.0%, or 6.5% if you take just England and Wales. Interesting because I thought your argument was going to be that when the UK becomes a predominantly Islamic country, that doesn't mean it will be an Islamist one. Do you anticipate its politics to be more like the sunnis in Saudi Arabia, shias in Iran or God Forbid the Islamists in Afganistan? Or do you predict the UK will be more "moderate" (i.e. more aligned with western values) such as in Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia for example ? Your question falls apart at the very first hurdle. The UK is not going to become a "predominately Islamic country". My maths in the previous post was a tad off, as Berny picked up, not to mention the "million/%" typo. My apologies. We are indeed only 24% of the way into that period, not 30%, so we'd need to be looking at 8.85m now to be on-track. We aren't. We have no idea how many of the c.6m Muslims here are "Islamists", either, but I suspect it's a very small proportion. B'sides, let's go back another step... Are Muslims somehow inferior people to non-Muslims? I wouldn't have said so. How many are even observant? The 2011 census quoted about 60% of the UK as being "Christian" - yet church attendances are virtually zero. About 950k people are believed to attend mosques weekly. Yet there's nearly 4m Muslims. So are three-quarters of them unobservant "cultural" Muslims, in the same way that the vast vast majority of Christians are? If the UK really did have 6.3% in 2016, and the 2021 census really does say 6.0%, that would suggest the Islamic contingent was falling for 5 years... ...not sure that passes the sniff test either. Or 6.3% was actually England and Wales, rather than UK. Statistica also quote that number for 2010 for the UK, elsewhere... So let's go with the 2021 census, eh? 2011 had 4.8% in England and Wales, so 2021's 6.5% is not that much of an increase. 2001 was 3%. So if we go with linear continuity of that rise of about 1.7% increase per decade, it's going to take until about the turn of the century to hit that "2050" figure of about 2 out of every 13.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jul 17, 2024 13:45:29 GMT
Muslim with âwestern valuesâ? I have met a few in the UK and they are just born âmuslimsâ but not practicing at all. No religious dress code what so ever but they do like to participate some âmotherlandâ tradition but not religious. They would even go to Church but not ready to be converted. These types donât hate the UK at all as they have all the freedom they have in this country. No alcohol ban and no temporary marriage license. đ¤Ł
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 17, 2024 13:59:48 GMT
Muslim with âwestern valuesâ? I have met a few in the UK and they are just born âmuslimsâ but not practicing at all. No religious dress code what so ever but they do like to participate some âmotherlandâ tradition but not religious. They would even go to Church but not ready to be converted. These types donât hate the UK at all as they have all the freedom they have in this country. No alcohol ban and no temporary marriage license. 𤣠Agreed, I know a few too. And by 2050, the Muslims who will have grown up in this country will be different from their parents (and grandparents). Of course they could be more fundamentalist, but the likelihood is they will be more Western, and for women in particular the less paternalistic/misogynistic culture here is likely to be embraced.
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Post by bernythedolt on Jul 17, 2024 16:52:00 GMT
Interesting because I thought your argument was going to be that when the UK becomes a predominantly Islamic country, that doesn't mean it will be an Islamist one. Do you anticipate its politics to be more like the sunnis in Saudi Arabia, shias in Iran or God Forbid the Islamists in Afganistan? Or do you predict the UK will be more "moderate" (i.e. more aligned with western values) such as in Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia for example ? Your question falls apart at the very first hurdle. The UK is not going to become a "predominately Islamic country". My maths in the previous post was a tad off, as Berny picked up, not to mention the "million/%" typo. My apologies. We are indeed only 24% of the way into that period, not 30%, so we'd need to be looking at 8.85m now to be on-track. We aren't. We have no idea how many of the c.6m Muslims here are "Islamists", either, but I suspect it's a very small proportion. B'sides, let's go back another step... Are Muslims somehow inferior people to non-Muslims? I wouldn't have said so. How many are even observant? The 2011 census quoted about 60% of the UK as being "Christian" - yet church attendances are virtually zero. About 950k people are believed to attend mosques weekly. Yet there's nearly 4m Muslims. So are three-quarters of them unobservant "cultural" Muslims, in the same way that the vast vast majority of Christians are? If the UK really did have 6.3% in 2016, and the 2021 census really does say 6.0%, that would suggest the Islamic contingent was falling for 5 years... ...not sure that passes the sniff test either. Or 6.3% was actually England and Wales, rather than UK. Statistica also quote that number for 2010 for the UK, elsewhere... So let's go with the 2021 census, eh? 2011 had 4.8% in England and Wales, so 2021's 6.5% is not that much of an increase. 2001 was 3%. So if we go with linear continuity of that rise of about 1.7% increase per decade, it's going to take until about the turn of the century to hit that "2050" figure of about 2 out of every 13. You're confusing yourself, adrianc . Your original use of % was correct, not millions. We don't (yet) have c.6m Muslims here, but 6% (or approx 4m): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom(You even used 4m in your very next paragraph above ). "6.3% was actually England and Wales, rather than UK"Statista states the 6.3% figure was for the UK, not England & Wales, although I imagine the percentage figure is fairly similar for both, so it's fairly moot. "rise of about 1.7% increase per decade"Now, taking your figures of 3% in 2001, 4.8% in 2011 and 6.5% in 2021, what growth rate does that imply? It's certainly not as low as 1.7% per decade, not even close. You maybe meant 1.7 times. The UK Muslim proportion, based on your figures, is growing at 3.94% per annum. [Later: I can see your 1.7% is based on absolute differences, but that isn't the conventional way to model populations, because they grow exponentially rather than linearly. For proportions of a population, it may be slightly more valid, but I think looking at annual increments is more conventional and more representative, as I've done]. Create a spreadsheet and verify my figures for yourself. You'll then see that trend leads to a Muslim proportion of 20% by 2050. Statista's estimate of 17.2% is surprisingly close to that, so I see no reason to question their prediction.
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michaelc
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Trump
Jul 17, 2024 17:25:25 GMT
Post by michaelc on Jul 17, 2024 17:25:25 GMT
Interesting because I thought your argument was going to be that when the UK becomes a predominantly Islamic country, that doesn't mean it will be an Islamist one. Do you anticipate its politics to be more like the sunnis in Saudi Arabia, shias in Iran or God Forbid the Islamists in Afganistan? Or do you predict the UK will be more "moderate" (i.e. more aligned with western values) such as in Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia for example ? Your question falls apart at the very first hurdle. The UK is not going to become a "predominately Islamic country". My maths in the previous post was a tad off, as Berny picked up, not to mention the "million/%" typo. My apologies. We are indeed only 24% of the way into that period, not 30%, so we'd need to be looking at 8.85m now to be on-track. We aren't. We have no idea how many of the c.6m Muslims here are "Islamists", either, but I suspect it's a very small proportion. B'sides, let's go back another step... Are Muslims somehow inferior people to non-Muslims? I wouldn't have said so. How many are even observant? The 2011 census quoted about 60% of the UK as being "Christian" - yet church attendances are virtually zero. About 950k people are believed to attend mosques weekly. Yet there's nearly 4m Muslims. So are three-quarters of them unobservant "cultural" Muslims, in the same way that the vast vast majority of Christians are? How can you possibly think that? On what grounds to do think someone's religious beliefs could make them somehow inferior? Are you Hitler or something...? An independent statistics website makes it clear the UK will become Islamic in a few decades time - well within the lifetime of many people living now. Is it somehow unpalatable to you that you deny it will happen? Why is it unpalatable to you? Are they somehow inferior? Yet again, I miss-read your values. I thought you would have agreed with the statistics and and embraced them. Something like "....yes so what if we become a muslim country? We have a great opportunity to ensure we become more like Indonesia and Egypt than for example Saudi, Iran and Afganistan...."
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jul 17, 2024 19:24:08 GMT
According to the Colonel Trump's Secret Service team were sent on some kind of leave and the people protecting Trump when the assassination attempt took place were not his normal Secret Service Team. I am sure Bracknel will say that is just another coincidence....
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adrianc
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Trump
Jul 17, 2024 19:36:33 GMT
Post by adrianc on Jul 17, 2024 19:36:33 GMT
You're confusing yourself, adrianc . Your original use of % was correct, not millions. <sigh> Entirely feasible.
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adrianc
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Trump
Jul 17, 2024 19:38:25 GMT
Post by adrianc on Jul 17, 2024 19:38:25 GMT
B'sides, let's go back another step... Are Muslims somehow inferior people to non-Muslims? I wouldn't have said so. How can you possibly think that? On what grounds to do think someone's religious beliefs could make them somehow inferior? Did you actually bother read the sentence AFTER the bit I emboldened, in your haste to take outrage? It's a question. I'm asking you. If we accept that they aren't any inherently inferior or superior or even different, then why are we even having a discussion over the percentage of the UK population?
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keitha
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Jul 17, 2024 19:52:33 GMT
Post by keitha on Jul 17, 2024 19:52:33 GMT
Muslim with âwestern valuesâ? I have met a few in the UK and they are just born âmuslimsâ but not practicing at all. No religious dress code what so ever but they do like to participate some âmotherlandâ tradition but not religious. They would even go to Church but not ready to be converted. These types donât hate the UK at all as they have all the freedom they have in this country. No alcohol ban and no temporary marriage license. 𤣠actually that made me laugh, saw a teenage / early 20's young lady this afternoon Hair all covered with a shocking pink Hijab, and wearing high heels and a skirt that was little more than a belt. Maybe I live in a different world to many but I don't recall the issues with Sikh Men in turbans or ladies in Saris that the Hijab, Burqa etc seem to generate. Maybe I lived in an area that was more accepting than where I am now
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Jul 17, 2024 19:55:33 GMT
According to the Colonel Trump's Secret Service team were sent on some kind of leave and the people protecting Trump when the assassination attempt took place were not his normal Secret Service Team. I am sure Bracknel will say that is just another coincidence.... Apparently the Colonel is poorly informed because somebody else's Secret Service Deep Throat says they were diverted to protect the First lady. My Secret Service Ronald Pakula says they were actually chasing two blokes in a Winnibago in search of an alien All three explanations are equally unsubstantiated and denied ... at least one is made up
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keitha
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Trump
Jul 17, 2024 19:59:22 GMT
Post by keitha on Jul 17, 2024 19:59:22 GMT
probably all 3 are plausible deniability
or maybe unknown unknowns
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michaelc
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Trump
Jul 17, 2024 20:05:37 GMT
Post by michaelc on Jul 17, 2024 20:05:37 GMT
How can you possibly think that? On what grounds to do think someone's religious beliefs could make them somehow inferior? Did you actually bother read the sentence AFTER the bit I emboldened, in your haste to take outrage? It's a question. I'm asking you. If we accept that they aren't any inherently inferior or superior or even different, then why are we even having a discussion over the percentage of the UK population? I just think you shouldn't go around suggesting Muslims are in some way inferior to non-Muslims. You should also take on board the fact that we will become an Islamic country in some decades and embrace it. Why are you trying to deny it ?
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angrysaveruk
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Jul 17, 2024 20:16:41 GMT
Post by angrysaveruk on Jul 17, 2024 20:16:41 GMT
According to the Colonel Trump's Secret Service team were sent on some kind of leave and the people protecting Trump when the assassination attempt took place were not his normal Secret Service Team. I am sure Bracknel will say that is just another coincidence.... Apparently the Colonel is poorly informed because somebody else's Secret Service Deep Throat says they were diverted to protect the First lady. My Secret Service Ronald Pakula says they were actually chasing two blokes in a Winnibago in search of an alien All three explanations are equally unsubstantiated and denied ... at least one is made up You are aware the Colonel is a personal friend of Trump (who considers him to be a military genius) and he talks directly to him on a weekly basis. Infact I suspect Trumps plans to invade Mexico and take out the Drug Cartels is actually the Colonels Plan - which he has talked about extensively on his controversial podcast.
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