aju
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Post by aju on Aug 11, 2020 8:54:04 GMT
I've seen no improvement in the Access queue since MB got involved. Rather the opposite in fact, RS appears to have just given up altogether on A/P/M. They keep banging on about their 'obligations' to borrowers, but what about their obligation to treat all their customers fairly? They are happily delivering RYI's in the 5yr market whilst sticking two fingers up at everyone in the A/P/M queue. When the queue doesn't move then they are definitely sticking two fingers up at the A/P/M holders. I'm not sure that's exactly fair considering that there are quite some sums sitting in the queues. The problem is there are little if any funds coming in so the only way to pay the leavers is to sell to existing lenders who are not selling or at least have all their lend settings turned on. Sadly its effectively a run on the products and quite a large exit that has to be shared. Perhaps at some point they may do similar to Zopa and shared the exit money rather than sticking with a FIFO approach but I'm guessing that may not be the case they will switch to.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 11, 2020 9:02:46 GMT
When the queue doesn't move then they are definitely sticking two fingers up at the A/P/M holders. I'm not sure that's exactly fair considering that there are quite some sums sitting in the queues. The problem is there are little if any funds coming in so the only way to pay the leavers is to sell to existing lenders who are not selling or at least have all their lend settings turned on. Sadly its effectively a run on the products and quite a large exit that has to be shared. Perhaps at some point they may do similar to Zopa and shared the exit money but I'm guessing that may not be the case. This is a very confused post. "Little if any funds coming in" is not correct - something like £20m is being re-invested in A/P/M every month. The problem is the proportion of this being diverted to new lending seems to have gone up significantly in recent weeks, resulting in hardly any A/P/M RYI processing. "so the only way to pay the leavers is to sell to existing lenders who are not selling or at least have all their lend settings turned on" - this has always been the only way to 'pay leavers'. RYI requests have always essentially been second-hand loan sales. I have no idea what you mean by "who are not selling or at least have all their lend settings turned on" - this is helpful for RYI processing; we want as many 'lend setting turned on' as possible. Maybe you actually meant 'turned off'? But, as stated above, a significant proportion are still re-investing, in fact. Edit: I think I understand now that you were suggesting the problem was no new investors; but this isn't really relevant to this point as A/P/M was being processed much faster previously, even with no new investors at that time. The calculation has always been new investment (inc re-investment) - new lending = amount available for RYI processing.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 11, 2020 9:16:41 GMT
I'm not sure that's exactly fair considering that there are quite some sums sitting in the queues. The problem is there are little if any funds coming in so the only way to pay the leavers is to sell to existing lenders who are not selling or at least have all their lend settings turned on. Sadly its effectively a run on the products and quite a large exit that has to be shared. Perhaps at some point they may do similar to Zopa and shared the exit money but I'm guessing that may not be the case. This is a very confused post. "Little if any funds coming in" is not correct - something like £20m is being re-invested in A/P/M every month. The problem is the proportion of this being diverted to new lending seems to have gone up significantly in recent weeks, resulting in hardly any A/P/M RYI processing. "so the only way to pay the leavers is to sell to existing lenders who are not selling or at least have all their lend settings turned on" - this has always been the only way to 'pay leavers'. RYI requests have always essentially been second-hand loan sales. I have no idea what you mean by "who are not selling or at least have all their lend settings turned on" - this is helpful for RYI processing; we want as many 'lend setting turned on' as possible. Maybe you actually meant 'turned off'? But, as stated above, a significant proportion are still re-investing, in fact. Ok so why is it so slow then, whats your thought on that then?. Perhaps its just your style You do seem to jump on people just because they don't necessarily agree with you. Sadly the numbers you quote may look big but they are not that big in the scheme of things. Surely if there is new lending, from outside, rather than churn then I'm surprised that this is the case more fool them since the recent announcements. If people have their re-lend settings turned off I assume they are like me grabbing the money and banking it. If they are relending then there is an opportunity to sell to them. I have my settings turned on but as I have them at the highest possible rate - its not possible to turn off a/p/m anyway I assumed that was read but perhaps not. Any how i'll butt out as its not seemingly helping if I get it wrong is it.. Apologies to those who I seem to have confused... Before I go you may be interested in this chart of funding over a period that in my view shows some of the issue that new money is no longer coming in in any amount it's mostly churned I feel.
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Post by gricehead on Aug 11, 2020 9:24:41 GMT
Matched at 23:18 last night, for a full 12 months. I'm curious what are you trying to establish from your research ? ... If you are trying to just hang on to the 1/5Y to maintain access to the relevant tools that seem to be unavailable to A/P/M lenders then you don't actually have to lend into the 1Y or the 5Y just set a £10 loan at 8% or 10% if you have it and it will not actually be lent just on hold unless rates/money in these accounts reach your high investment levels. Of course if you are not selling out on 1Y/5Y then it's not relevant. I have this approach from before the Metro deals but to be honest now that RS is, in my view, all but dead with the new arrangements with Metro then its probably better to put money elsewhere. who knows what may happen when the PF runs out as it has to at some point I feel. Three pronged: 1. I'm bored 2. It's only a tenner 3. People in this and other threads occasionally post querying whether there is still lending happening in the 1y market. I'm not currently selling out of the 1y market, because I don't see the point. I doubt RYI would return the majority of funds quicker than the loans maturing. I fully understand why this is.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 11, 2020 9:31:42 GMT
Ok so why is it so slow then, whats your thought on that then?. Perhaps its just your style You do seem to jump on people just because they don't necessarily agree with you. Sadly the numbers you quote may look big but they are not that big in the scheme of things. Surely if there is new lending, from outside, rather than churn then I'm surprised that this is the case more fool them since the recent announcements. If people have their re-lend settings turned off I assume they are like me grabbing the money and banking it. If they are relending then there is an opportunity to sell to them. I have my settings turned on but as I have them at the highest possible rate - its not possible to turn off a/p/m anyway I assumed that was read but perhaps not. Any how i'll butt out as its not seemingly helping if I get it wrong is it.. Appologies to those who I seem to have confused... My incredulity stems from how many times we've all been over this on this thread. The answer is that so much new lending is happening from A/P/M that it's using up all the re-investment money, so there's basically nothing left over for RYI processing. This amount of new lending appears to have increased in recent weeks. I'm not sure I follow the rest of your post, but significant re-investment is still happening in A/P/M. The problem is that it all seems to be going to new lending. Edit: Re your chart that you've added in your edit - all this shows is how much new lending is happening, no? Although we can't see how it splits across the markets.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 11, 2020 9:46:51 GMT
Ok so why is it so slow then, whats your thought on that then?. Perhaps its just your style You do seem to jump on people just because they don't necessarily agree with you. Sadly the numbers you quote may look big but they are not that big in the scheme of things. Surely if there is new lending, from outside, rather than churn then I'm surprised that this is the case more fool them since the recent announcements. If people have their re-lend settings turned off I assume they are like me grabbing the money and banking it. If they are relending then there is an opportunity to sell to them. I have my settings turned on but as I have them at the highest possible rate - its not possible to turn off a/p/m anyway I assumed that was read but perhaps not. Any how i'll butt out as its not seemingly helping if I get it wrong is it.. Apologies to those who I seem to have confused... My incredulity stems from how many times we've all been over this on this thread. The answer is that so much new lending is happening from A/P/M that it's using up all the re-investment money, so there's basically nothing left over for RYI processing. This amount of new lending appears to have increased in recent weeks. I'm not sure I follow the rest of your post, but significant re-investment is still happening in A/P/M. The problem is that it all seems to be going to new lending. Perhaps its just me, anyway to illustrate my thoughts I added a diagram that shows the cliff edge around the start of the offload of lenders. I kept the whole chart so its not that obvious that new lending has fallen off the cliff and it was around the run start times. Up to that point there was lending of 10M or more per week. Its actually down to 5M per week so thats what I am talking about. I'm definitely out of this as I have to go and make some money with halifax's new deal, not much but should gain us a further 1.2% as Mrs Aju's marcus turns tail at the end of the months. One or two hoops but will be worth a £5k punt in two accounts plus the £100 movement deal too. Edit: This chart shows the churn last 12 months and for me shows there is little difference since early march. This weekly so you 20M is right but I don't think most of it new money just churned with thos that have not sold out or stopped relending.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 11, 2020 9:51:03 GMT
Perhaps its just me, anyway to illustrate my thoughts I added a diagram that shows the cliff edge around the start of the offload of lenders. I kept the whole chart so its not that obvious that new lending has fallen off the cliff and it was around the run start times. Up to that point there was lending of 10M or more per week. Its actually down to 5M per week so thats what I am talking about. See my edit above that I added after you added the chart. Are you, per chance, getting confused between 'new lending' and 'new/re-investment'? You seemed to be talking about the latter before, but now you're talking about the former (including your chart)? Your chart shows how much money is going out [to borrowers], not how much money is coming in. Edit: You keep adding charts in edits several minutes after your posts - I'm afraid I still don't really know what you're trying to show with this, though. We don't know how much of this new lending is in A/P/M; and even if we did, it doesn't add anything to the point you originally seemed to be making about the amount of new/re-investment happening. I don't think this is going anywhere, so let's maybe leave it.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 11, 2020 10:01:51 GMT
Perhaps its just me, anyway to illustrate my thoughts I added a diagram that shows the cliff edge around the start of the offload of lenders. I kept the whole chart so its not that obvious that new lending has fallen off the cliff and it was around the run start times. Up to that point there was lending of 10M or more per week. Its actually down to 5M per week so thats what I am talking about. See my edit above that I added after you added the chart. Are you, per chance, getting confused between 'new lending' and 'new/re-investment'? You seemed to be talking about the latter before, but now you're talking about the former (including your chart)? Your chart shows how much money is going out [to borrowers], not how much money is coming in. I can;t keep up I added a new chart for the last year. It shows weekly volume which is essentially shows volume as you say money to borrowers, as its decreasing though rather than increasing it actually shows that there is less external investments coming in wiseclerk 's charts also will show this on a monthly basis. In reality if it's going up then it's new money(new lend) as well as churned funds (Relend). Unless i'm just being bloody stupid. Since march it has dropped considerably from earlier in fact going from the start it was largely incereasing month on month. That reduction to me means less if any new money is coming in. You can interpret it how you like. Perhaps it means there are less borrowers too but the monthly figure of 20M you quoted was until the last 6 months or so the weekly figure. I'm leaving this debate as it seems I don't have the skills to convince anymore and to be honest I need to make some money today to mitigate the potential losses that are on the way!
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 11, 2020 10:09:53 GMT
I can;t keep up I added a new chart for the last year. It shows weekly volume which is essentially as you money to borrowers, as its decreasing though rather than increasing it actually shows that there is less external investments coming in @wiseclerks charts also will show this on a monthly basis. In reality if its going up then its new money as well as churn. Unless i'm just being bloody stupid. Since march it has dropped considerably. That to me mean s new money is not coming in anymore. You can interpret it how you like. perhaps it means there are less borrowers too. but the monthly figure of 20M you quoted was until the last 6 months or so the weekly figure. I've said this twice, but will say it one more time: your chart does not show a market breakdown, so we don't know how new lending has changed in A/P/M. You also keep making comparisons with March. We are not talking about now vs. March. We are talking about now vs. a month or two ago. A/P/M processing has slowed massively in the last month. This is the point of the posts you originally responded to, and perhaps did not understand.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 11, 2020 10:15:32 GMT
I can;t keep up I added a new chart for the last year. It shows weekly volume which is essentially as you money to borrowers, as its decreasing though rather than increasing it actually shows that there is less external investments coming in @wiseclerks charts also will show this on a monthly basis. In reality if its going up then its new money as well as churn. Unless i'm just being bloody stupid. Since march it has dropped considerably. That to me mean s new money is not coming in anymore. You can interpret it how you like. perhaps it means there are less borrowers too. but the monthly figure of 20M you quoted was until the last 6 months or so the weekly figure. I've said this twice, but will say it one more time: your chart does not show a market breakdown, so we don't know how new lending has changed in A/P/M. You also keep making comparisons with March. We are not talking about now vs. March. We are talking about now vs. a month or two ago. A/P/M processing has slowed massively in the last month. This is the point of the posts you originally responses to, and perhaps did not understand. I give up I showed the progress from day one its obviously increasing, I showed the last years worth and it show the cliff fall off. If there is some new money coming in then its not easy to tell as the weekly fluctuations are not that distinctive in the scheme of things. You are responding too quickly for me to keep up so that why I seem to be adding charts in stuff you have moved on. Its up to you whether you want to understand or not I don't know what else to say, i tried you believe what you want to believe I'll move on now for real... over and out....
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 11, 2020 10:20:16 GMT
I've said this twice, but will say it one more time: your chart does not show a market breakdown, so we don't know how new lending has changed in A/P/M. You also keep making comparisons with March. We are not talking about now vs. March. We are talking about now vs. a month or two ago. A/P/M processing has slowed massively in the last month. This is the point of the posts you originally responses to, and perhaps did not understand. I give up I showed the progress from day one its obviously increasing, I showed the last years worth and it show the cliff fall off. If there is some new money coming in then its not easy to tell as the weekly fluctuations are not that distinctive in the scheme of things. You are responding too quickly for me to keep up so that why I seem to be adding charts in stuff you have moved on. Its up to you whether you want to understand or not I don't know what else to say, i tried you believe what you want to believe I'll move on now for real... over and out.... I struggle to know how to deal with a response like this. I've pointed out two fundamental issues with the point you're trying to make here and you don't address either...
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 11, 2020 10:22:59 GMT
I'm curious what are you trying to establish from your research ? ... If you are trying to just hang on to the 1/5Y to maintain access to the relevant tools that seem to be unavailable to A/P/M lenders then you don't actually have to lend into the 1Y or the 5Y just set a £10 loan at 8% or 10% if you have it and it will not actually be lent just on hold unless rates/money in these accounts reach your high investment levels. Of course if you are not selling out on 1Y/5Y then it's not relevant. I have this approach from before the Metro deals but to be honest now that RS is, in my view, all but dead with the new arrangements with Metro then its probably better to put money elsewhere. who knows what may happen when the PF runs out as it has to at some point I feel. Three pronged: 1. I'm bored 2. It's only a tenner 3. People in this and other threads occasionally post querying whether there is still lending happening in the 1y market. I'm not currently selling out of the 1y market, because I don't see the point. I doubt RYI would return the majority of funds quicker than the loans maturing. I fully understand why this is. 1. I can relate to that but I have a new wind now that halifax has £100 on offer for free - sort of! 2. Yeah in the scheme of things its good to get a better understanding 3. We are selling out of All products Access, 1Y and 5Y, it's real close now in 5Y for us and is the lions of our share of our RS fund. Good luck, thanks for sharing
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 11, 2020 10:26:00 GMT
I give up I showed the progress from day one its obviously increasing, I showed the last years worth and it show the cliff fall off. If there is some new money coming in then its not easy to tell as the weekly fluctuations are not that distinctive in the scheme of things. You are responding too quickly for me to keep up so that why I seem to be adding charts in stuff you have moved on. Its up to you whether you want to understand or not I don't know what else to say, i tried you believe what you want to believe I'll move on now for real... over and out.... I struggle to know how to deal with a response like this. I've pointed out two fundamental issues with the point you're trying to make here and you don't address either... Well you do seem to think you are cleverer than me and to be honest that wouldn't be that hard lowly sec school idiot like me so I'll leave you to work it out. You might want to consider your style and approach to critical thought though, just suggesting its up to you how you are with others of course.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 11, 2020 10:31:11 GMT
I struggle to know how to deal with a response like this. I've pointed out two fundamental issues with the point you're trying to make here and you don't address either... Well you do seem to think you are cleverer than me and to be honest that wouldn't be that hard lowly sec school idiot like me so I'll leave you to work it out. You might want to consider your style and approach to critical thought though, just suggesting its up to you how you are with others of course. I mean, I've not made a single personal comment about you at all. I've tried to explain why I think your posts are misunderstanding the point that several of us have made re A/P/M processing slowing down and become somewhat frustrated when you seem to completely talk past the points I'm making in your responses... If you see this as a personal attack about your intelligence or otherwise, then this may be more about you than me.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2020 11:11:25 GMT
RYI = new offers (from new money) + new offers (repayments) - new lending
And there is a separate equation for each of the three markets (APM, 1yr, 5yr).
I think there are too many unknowns to draw firm conclusions, although I doubt new offers from new money are significant.
If new lending has remained stable and repayments are falling (as total amount on loan is reducing), then RYIs must fall for the equation to still hold.
I'm not sure there is anything new here, but it may help someone, including me.
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