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Post by dodgeydave on Jan 23, 2017 10:30:39 GMT
timm2006 The main defaults happened mid to late 2015 from memory. Quite a few loans defaulted with in a very short period of time. There was a period when a certain commercial broker was bringing loans to the platform which can only be described as toxic. Some loans were defaulting before 6months, at least 1 defaulted after just 1 payment and it turns out the company was in trouble when the loan was presented to the community. IMHO no proper due dil was completed by the broker or ReBS. The loans had varied ratings, the loans that only made 1 payment was a B - (however you could argue what merits a loans rating.) I have said before on other threads, this is one of reasons why I don't invest on this platform anymore, due to this commercial broker and their attitude toward us, the community. However, I would say things have got better at ReBS from Mid 2016. If you look at this link with the defaults listed. You could work out when most defaults occurred . p2pindependentforum.com/thread/5333/more-defaults-facts?page=5
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7d7
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Post by 7d7 on Mar 16, 2017 16:04:07 GMT
Loan stats reveal a mere 2% overall net return for the platform. As for many investors like me, the net return on our account was, is and will be in the negative. Have lost faith in the recovery process as they pussyfoot around week in week out churning out unproductive updates on defaulted loans. Should've left longtime ago. Anyway, better late than never.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Mar 16, 2017 20:06:22 GMT
Using the dashboard figure I'm at 15.1% to the good (after bad debts etc)
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mnm
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Post by mnm on Mar 17, 2017 0:15:54 GMT
How would you accurately predicate recoveries?
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Mar 17, 2017 1:50:53 GMT
I started investing with ReBs 3 years ago and had zero defaults in year one. Then it all went horribly wrong. I had about 75 loans when it all went wrong and 25 of those have defaulted. I started selling all my loans 15 months ago, and I have almost nothing left that I can sell. My dashboard says I have an annual return of 17%, but that is absolute nonsense. My reasoning is simple, I have paid in more than I have taken out. I have a transaction gain, and promotions are greater than deductions. Even if all the defaulted loans returned 100% I still wouldn't make 17% annualised, it's impossible.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Mar 17, 2017 12:57:59 GMT
...... This Probable Recoveries Estimate has thus far been proven to be 'somewhat' misleading as the Actual and Historical Platform and lender specific recovery statistics on defaulted loans are quite simply appalling. Estimates IMO do not make for a reliability when comes down to one really making a 'rose tinted specs off' view of one's Actual Return on Investment. Do you have any comparisons estimate vs actual? Estimates imo are a more reliable than instant absolute despair In my case the estimated recovery overall is ~55%; if I instead assumed there would be no recovery at all it would bring my overall return down to 11% more or less. Which is still my best platform. I know it sounds like I'm a stooge for REBS, I'm not, but I think they get unfairly pilloried. I actually think their recovery operation (or at least the communications thereof) is best in class now.
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Post by dodgeydave on Mar 18, 2017 1:48:53 GMT
...... This Probable Recoveries Estimate has thus far been proven to be 'somewhat' misleading as the Actual and Historical Platform and lender specific recovery statistics on defaulted loans are quite simply appalling. Estimates IMO do not make for a reliability when comes down to one really making a 'rose tinted specs off' view of one's Actual Return on Investment. Do you have any comparisons estimate vs actual? Estimates imo are a more reliable than instant absolute despair In my case the estimated recovery overall is ~55%; if I instead assumed there would be no recovery at all it would bring my overall return down to 11% more or less. Which is still my best platform. I know it sounds like I'm a stooge for REBS, I'm not, but I think they get unfairly pilloried. I actually think their recovery operation (or at least the communications thereof) is best in class now. There are no figures posted on actual recoveries. This is confidential according to Rebs . Why ? If you look at another thread . ( Link below ) which Rebs are refusing to answer. The estimates are not correct either. p2pindependentforum.com/thread/7265/rubbish-distribution-after-default .
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Post by flobberchops on Mar 19, 2017 11:53:29 GMT
Using the dashboard figure I'm at 15.1% to the good (after bad debts etc) About that - my calculated figure after fees is actually HIGHER than the gross return (18.52% and 16.82% respectively). How could that possibly work?
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Post by danraj on Mar 22, 2017 15:27:47 GMT
By compounding your returns.
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Post by flobberchops on Mar 22, 2017 17:24:09 GMT
OK, good to know, but in that case the effects of compounding must not be included in the gross figure? Odd that it's not a like-for-like comparison.
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stub8535
Member of DD Central
personal opinions only. Not qualified to advise on investment products.
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Post by stub8535 on Mar 23, 2017 0:12:26 GMT
Statistics are only useful if their is a known formula agreed and used otherwise it is meaningless. Rebs is not the only platform to put out "statistics" that are unreasonably biased to show the company in a better light. Hows about being brutally honest and showing the working as all kids are asked to do in exams. Novel approach but great customer service! Whilst you are talking stats dont forget to exclude the first call fees of the wholly owned susidiary debt management company in the calculation of investors actual returns from any payout. As for sticking with the ship, sorry platform, mentioned earlier for 3 years I think I will continue to act like the rat in the proverb. I really do want to be shown to be wrong on recoveries performance for the sake of investors only. Cant see you beating 25% recovery rate after fees on currently defaulted loans over the next 3 years from reading anything you have put out so far on loan comments. I am sure the site will survive as not everyone is aware of forums, or is it fora, forget my Latin conjugations now, and they will blindly swallow anything put in front of them. After all, why should it be different on Rebs than on FC et al? Good luck to those who continue to sail in the xxxx ship ReBs.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Mar 23, 2017 14:01:20 GMT
By compounding your returns. This is just to gran your attention Dani, and ask you to take us through the recovery estimates calculations I think there has been some loose use of the words recovery to mean percentage of original loan amount. I understand that at some points it's reasonable to include the repayments made, actually more useful when looking at overall return. But it's not strictly recovery to my mind. But I'm not clear about fees, and I'm not clear about whether the recovery estimates on the dashboard actually do mea recovery. For example if a 100K loan had had 40K repaid plus say 15K interest. So at the point it goes wrong there is 60K owed? The normal estimate starts at 40% - is this 24K (40% of 60K)? As recovery progresses and the percentage moves around does the expected recovery amount just move in proportion? (50%=30K and so on)
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Post by danraj on Mar 27, 2017 17:03:52 GMT
shimself you are correct... If a 100K loan had 40K repaid plus say 15K interest, at the point of default there is 60K owed. The estimated recovery starts at 40% - which is 24K (40% of 60K) - so the probable loss is £36k. As recovery progresses and the percentage moves around the expected recovery adjusts in proportion (so 50%=30K and so on).
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Post by oppsididitagain on Mar 27, 2017 19:31:21 GMT
Thanks for clarifying this Danraj..
I don't believe this is what has happened with H****y D*********** Ltd
In my case : (rounded numbers)
£90 was posted as a loan redemption to the statement and £340 was posted to my losses
So I can only presume I had £430 outstanding exposure of the bad debt. As its been stated on mainly occasions - Michael confirmed £22465 was outstanding at the time of default and 10K is going to be the final settlement figure. (ReBS will not pass on any costs and we will get all the money recovered ) So approx 44% recovery as confirmed by Michael.
As you can see 44% of a £430 outstanding amount should be approx £190 recovered and the 56% written off to bad debt approx £240
Again please can you speak to Michael and someone please tell us how and why our statements don't show these %'s !!!
M*wbr** and S**ns - We received approx 86% recovery and this seemed to have been processed correctly. 86% going to the statement and 14% going to bad debt
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mnm
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Post by mnm on Apr 4, 2017 21:10:35 GMT
To answer the original question: Anybody made positive returns? Yes. At this moment the Dashboard is showing 16.30% & states "Your annual return after deductions for fees, defaults and bad debt"
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