johni
Member of DD Central
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Post by johni on Oct 26, 2017 11:11:23 GMT
Over 5% bought today now number 2 on the leader board.
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fogey
Posts: 171
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Post by fogey on Oct 27, 2017 0:52:46 GMT
Oher 5% bought today now number 2 on the leader board. That's all history now ! Today there is now a brand new Panic of the Day Back to number 1 ... 9.53% latest availability ...
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Oct 27, 2017 2:01:24 GMT
Oher 5% bought today now number 2 on the leader board. That's all history now ! Today there is now a brand new Panic of the Day Back to number 1 ... 9.53% latest availability ...
What was your opinion on the Gazette article? Do you spend as much time in DD as you do watching/commenting on the SM?
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fogey
Posts: 171
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Post by fogey on Oct 27, 2017 4:19:55 GMT
As a relative newcomer to p2p I don't believe I am qualified to make any significant inputs to the DD exercises at the moment: I am trying to learn from others in this regard. My name here gives some clue regarding my age and I am now probably at the stage in life where it is very difficult for me to learn such skills in any depth. At the moment it seems to me that DD plays a very important role in assessing the initial risk elements but the current operation of the SM appears to be governed far more by sentiment than any logical process.
The increasing number of defaults culminating in the suspension of the market to allow the Prestbury loan to be reconfigured appears to have instilled a heightened sense of fear regarding any new external stimuli, whether real or imagined. Any new updates are examined in minute detail to determine how they might indicate the satisfactory progress or otherwise of a loan. This applies to forum posts too and I suspect if these are not easily understood then the default response becomes the predominant negativity that pervades most of the market at the moment. This is probably why the post around the Gazette article has triggered yet another panic response, especially as MT have made no comment around it so far. When there is no response it is now automatically assumed to be for a further negative reason.
When I first encountered MT many months ago I was immediately amazed by the intense euphoria and remarked on it in my early posts. But no one on this forum seemed to notice it in the same way as I did. It just seemed quite normal to people here, so that everything revolved around a profound sense of optimism. As time passed the sentiment has almost completely reversed so that the SM operates in a completely different way and it is this aspect that really intrigues me at the moment. In particular, what triggers the onset of the frequent panic attacks that now dominate the market and cause problems for all investors. The concept of "sheepies" is probably far too simplistic and just provides an excuse to ignore the problem, hoping that it will just eventually go away. However at the moment the problem is certainly intensifying and hope is in very short supply indeed.
With regard to the Liverpool loan I suspect most investors have a relatively high exposure, whilst there was very little available on the SM it was not considered to present a significant risk: investors felt free to sell their excess holdings at any time that suited them. But the recent abrupt change in SM sentiment has suddenly caused investors to try to significantly reduce their positions. When many try to do so at the same time, the SM is unable to handle the situation. This heightens tensions even further so that long sales queues start to form thus creating the current problematic situation. Of course this then opens up the debate around premiums and discounts as a possible solution, but at the moment there seems to be no obvious solution but to wait and hope everything sorts itself out.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Oct 27, 2017 6:08:44 GMT
Welcome fogey . Wrt the last bit of your last sentence I suspect the answer is in the last sentence of your first para, but despite having it under your nose you make yourself trip over paying too much attention (or giving too much weight) to your first phrase & in particular your second sentence. All is not lost, your second (post colon) phrase belies a lucidity & determination that is the solution to many things (including your seventh sentence in the third para). If you’ve got as far as that, & are still smiling, you are as able as anyone to join the dots that make up (a bit of blood, sweat & tears aside) most of what is needed for dd. It’s really not that hard. For my part I have enjoyed many of your posts, as always we’re all just guessing across the ether but it didn’t seem to take too much joining of dots (on any of your posts) to spot a sharp & humorous take on things which often had me (& presumably many others) a-chuckling. Fun & laffs an important part of everything so I thank you for that. I hope to continue reading you here, whatever you decide to do with your possibly exceptional, if to date perhaps insufficiently employed, dd skills. May I bid you farewell for now, before you start putting the first word in the penultimate line of this screen (the one with an exclamation mark) together with the last word of your post, the fourth word of your second para & the third word of your second sentence together & then hitting send. Because if you do that it’ll be a sure sign that's the end of you having much time to watch the SM, & we’ll sorely miss much of your wit. Welcome again fogey, good to have you here.
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fp
Posts: 1,008
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Post by fp on Oct 27, 2017 8:05:31 GMT
jjc, the master of cryptic crosswords!
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 27, 2017 9:34:06 GMT
My brain is definitely not in the right place to unravel jjc 's post this morning Its been quite remarkable to watch Liverpool boomerang from zero availability, up to near £300k, all the way back down again, and back up again in just a few days. fogey 's right, and what we've seen in the last few days is pretty much what happened over at Lendy Towers too a few months back. There was a cycle of: 1) Being the golden child, where the forum focus is purely on maximising allocations, through timing, technology,and anything you can basically get your hands on to get more. 2) The platform responding to that and increasing the size, risk, and profit margin of their proposals, resulting in lower quality + lower rates (e.g. Lendy's 9% loans, MT Bradford). The more observant participants at this stage are already looking at perhaps trimming down here and there where they've been a bit exuberant, but most are still very fully invested. 3) Problems - suspensions/defaults, initially not causing too much panic except for the affected loans, but after 2 or 3, triggering a large portion of the userbase to become spooked and try (and fail) to sell en masse. 4) Then a period of waves, as sentiment rides back and forth on a hairpin. 5) Then, if the platform does nothing about it (or tackles it poorly as Lendy did), the market goes 'pop' and becomes totally irrational, with only the very safest/smallest loans generally safe. Lendy tried tacking on confusing bonus accrual stuff that was very poorly explained, and IMV has not worked. We're probably at stage 4) with MT right now. I will say there's plenty of aspects which IMV make MT otherwise not comparable (i.e. better) than Lendy, but they share a platform which can't quite stand up to the reality of P2P. If they don't change things, the natural thing that investors will do is become very cautious indeed about throwing too much money at new investments. As Fogey says, alot of people invested more heavily in Liverpool than they probably should have (I did), and I don't think they'll be so keen to do that again. That is one area where not having a proper SM actually does cause problems for the platform and not just us investors, as they will struggle now to fill large loans. As a side note, Ablrate appears to be becoming seen as a panacea for investors again for some reason. Maybe just because it hasn't had a default for a while. I would encourage would-be investors to look through the container threads and the holiday park threads to remind themselves that there's no perfect platform here.
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fp
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Post by fp on Oct 27, 2017 11:25:02 GMT
<snippety snip> That is one area where not having a proper SM actually does cause problems for the platform and not just us investors, as they will struggle now to fill large loans. <snippety snip> Am i missing something, you are referring to MT not having an SM aren't you?
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 27, 2017 12:09:09 GMT
<snippety snip> That is one area where not having a proper SM actually does cause problems for the platform and not just us investors, as they will struggle now to fill large loans. <snippety snip> Am i missing something, you are referring to MT not having an SM aren't you? Sorry, that's me being loose with wording. What I meant by "proper" SM is an SM that can adjust to the true market price rather than par only.
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hazellend
Member of DD Central
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Post by hazellend on Oct 27, 2017 13:40:47 GMT
I remember the old days where MT didn’t have a secondary market. Simpler times!
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Oct 27, 2017 13:51:31 GMT
I remember the old days where MT didn’t have a secondary market. Simpler times! I always thought prison life would be fairly simple. Until somebody pointed out what happened to 'pretty boys' like me.
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kermie
Member of DD Central
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Post by kermie on Nov 5, 2017 18:53:08 GMT
£0!
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guff
Posts: 730
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Post by guff on Nov 5, 2017 20:55:47 GMT
I remember the old days where MT didn’t have a secondary market. Simpler times! And Leonard Sachs makes a welcome return.
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Post by elephantrosie on Nov 5, 2017 22:40:04 GMT
all loans are liquid now
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Post by trentenders on Nov 6, 2017 7:37:35 GMT
all loans are liquid now They aren't. They are only liquid if you are looking to sell.
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