elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Sept 13, 2017 22:14:17 GMT
There was a lot of MH and brundle earlier which was going nowhere fast until someone came in around 5pm and bought the lot ! I may have missed it. Have we had any information on whether MH is likely to repay at term in about 9 weeks? I'm wondering if it might be extented to finish the work on the hall? And if there will be further tranches to develop the car park? Latest MH progress update recently uploaded on Support (although you'll have to draw your own conclusions re redemption).
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Sept 14, 2017 7:26:44 GMT
I may have missed it. Have we had any information on whether MH is likely to repay at term in about 9 weeks? I'm wondering if it might be extented to finish the work on the hall? And if there will be further tranches to develop the car park? Latest MH progress update recently uploaded on Support (although you'll have to draw your own conclusions re redemption). Thanks. I saw that. Was just wondering if there had been any posts on the forum recently.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 14, 2017 17:39:02 GMT
Some fish n chips popped up this afternoon to relieve the boredom of the endless MH offerings
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toast
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Post by toast on Sept 14, 2017 18:21:50 GMT
MoneyThing , is it intentional that drawdowns 9-10 (BPF705 and BPF711) lack "renew" flags but drawdowns 1-8 have them?
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Post by MoneyThing on Sept 15, 2017 8:27:22 GMT
MoneyThing , is it intentional that drawdowns 9-10 (BPF705 and BPF711) lack "renew" flags but drawdowns 1-8 have them? Thanks Toast. Now corrected. Regards, Ed.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Sept 16, 2017 8:15:50 GMT
Put your boots on & fill 'em!
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 17, 2017 13:47:36 GMT
Starting to clog up with brundle and MH so that they are now both wandering into berk territory. Maybe related to the recent growing concerns over some potential exit problems. It is definitely not the strong sellers market that it was just a week ago and buyers are becoming very selective indeed.
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Post by badboyyardy on Sept 17, 2017 20:05:37 GMT
Whats happening with MH - work completed but not selling so not much chance of renewal? Anyone nearby got any extra progress of work/site?
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johni
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Post by johni on Sept 17, 2017 20:18:38 GMT
It says remaining leases have been agreed. It is the work that's not complete.
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Post by badboyyardy on Sept 17, 2017 20:27:11 GMT
I'm just trying to understand the dumping of MH in the SM....
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Sept 17, 2017 21:53:44 GMT
/mod hat off
Compared to the size of the loan, the amount on sale is not that vast .. it's one of the two or three biggest loans on MT (~20% of the total loan book IIRC) , so it's always likely to have the most for sale. I guess there may be some slight contagion from the B'head BPF loan, but that doesn't seem to have been a major issue so far for most lenders. Reading entrails is really tough, given there are sure to be some lenders with holdings 100x bigger than most of us, so a 'minor trim' for them looks like a flood.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 18, 2017 7:02:00 GMT
Also, in the finest British tradition, MT lenders see a queue forming on the SM and immediately feel they ought to join it, for fear it might become a much longer queue later. There's little or no downside to joining the queue, since interest continues to be earned, and likely they could buy back in later if they wanted to.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 18, 2017 19:31:49 GMT
Investors have been moving out of MH for some time now, much as they did for AE and for similar reasons. There were small queues every day last week but these had cleared quickly the following day. So each day investors sold small amounts and the SM was easily able to absorb them on a regular basis.
The situation changed on the 15th and 16th and an inspection of the recent investment figures shows this to be the case for nearly all the MH drawdowns. The previous buying interests dropped significantly with the result that the steady sales demand could not be met and the queues slowly extended as a consequence.
So the question is what happened on the 15th and 16th to change the SM sentiment ? The SM responds as much to sentiment as it does reason and in some cases even more so. In this way it is easy to see how sentiment is changing over time, especially when there is no obvious logical reason for the changes.
Looking at the updates at this time there are clearly two which could easily have affected market sentiment. The exits for prestby and the supercars were starting to look even more uncertain and therefore imposed a more negative overall outlook, which may have led investors to take a more cautious view of buying into a steadily increasing position within MH (and also brundle).
The supercars situation may resolve itself shorty but it is uncertain how long prestby will take. The berk territory at the high availability end of the SM is not just an indication of the size of loans being placed for sale, it is also becoming identified as a sign of loans with a very uncertain future. So as loans drift into this region for one reason or another they become less attractive to potential buyers unless some positive news turns up in the updates. Even this is now questionable as sometime positive updates are quickly followed by negative ones, in which case intense confusion arises and the overall sentiment becomes even worse.
There seems to be no logical reason why MH should be seen as an increasing risk, so the most likely scenario is that reason will eventually prevail and the buying patterns will eventually revert to those previously seen and the existing queues will slowly shorten.
Negative sentiment cannot prevail indefinitely without good reason .
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 19, 2017 16:06:00 GMT
Just fell into the old "try to put your holding up for sale but click the wrong button end up buying more instead" trap!
Ah well, at least still earning a little more interest in the sales queue.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 22, 2017 10:59:05 GMT
Just fell into the old "try to put your holding up for sale but click the wrong button end up buying more instead" trap! Ah well, at least still earning a little more interest in the sales queue. Well perhaps your subconscious and sensible intuition led you to press the right button !
Lots of negative sentiment out there now following the supercars default ... Means lots of good stuff coming online for you to feast on Looks like someone ate a good chunk of Lancs Park for breakfast this morning ! Wigan is becoming universally popular too ... as for MH ... well take your pick there's no need to hurry there as none of it is shifting much at all now ! Liverpool is still flying out the door as if there's no tomorrow so you will have to be quick for that still ... and of course Manchester Road is no slouch at the moment ! Solihull doesn't hang around much either even Porsche and that Merc pop up for a second or two and then fly away So is it even slowly turning into a buyer's market now ?
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