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Post by captainconfident on Sept 10, 2024 14:47:20 GMT
I hope this youtube clip starts to play at 7 min 30s, when you hear the Republican spokesman comes out with a statement so outrageous that in any other country it would hit the headlines. But discourse in America is so degraded that it seems hardly remarkable. “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the number one traffickers of children– girls into sex slavery on planet Earth! How many people are in jail for that?”youtu.be/91PDITpWBPI?si=jTav9wR8EVAAMTYW&t=450In reply, the interviewer intervenes. "At this point, Melber interrupted, warning Miller: “We’ve gone this far in an exchange, we’re not doing just anything you want to rip off the Internet that’s false. And we’re not doing defamation here! As you know, there’s other Trump allies who’ve got a lot of trouble with that. We’re not doing that here.”
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Post by bernythedolt on Sept 10, 2024 21:05:59 GMT
In the same wy as companies' values are determined by betting/investing on the share price, you will find the betting exchanges give the most likely instantaneous picture of the race. If I thought a victory for one side more likely than the bookies did, I might bet on it - while actively supporting the other. You might then take a look at the exchanges, like Betfair Exchange, for example. That's the old model involving a bookie, the traditional spivvy 'crook' who sets whatever odds will guarantee to line his pockets. The exchanges mentioned by michaelc involve no bookie as such, so you're actually betting against another punter's perception. You're a well informed individual and could do quite well at it, I reckon. The exchanges match ordinary punters head-to-head, so if you believe a victory more likely for one side than another punter believes, you can offer your own odds to tempt him, or you can accept the odds he has offered. The bet is only made when both parties are content with the odds mutually agreed. The provider of this 'match up' service (eg. Betfair is the provider I use) rakes off a small and quite acceptable percentage from the winner to pay for their service. It certainly doesn't have the rip-off feel of the old traditional bookies' offering. I actually placed a small wager against Kamala Harris some weeks ago, just for interest. Don't care whether I lose or win, either my losing will make another punter slightly happier or I'll have a marginally better day is all. What I have found from experience, in support of what michaelc has said, is that the average punter is remarkably well informed on these events (there is no easy money to be found!). The Exchange is as good a bellwether as you will find, IMHO.
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
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Trump
Sept 10, 2024 21:54:10 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 10, 2024 21:54:10 GMT
If I thought a victory for one side more likely than the bookies did, I might bet on it - while actively supporting the other. You might then take a look at the exchanges, like Betfair Exchange, for example. That's the old model involving a bookie, the traditional spivvy 'crook' who sets whatever odds will guarantee to line his pockets. The exchanges mentioned by michaelc involve no bookie as such, so you're actually betting against another punter's perception. Furry muff - swap "the bookmarkers' perception" for "the other punters' perception". I'm well informed enough to know that betting is for mugs, and the only winners are the house.
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 4,424
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Trump
Sept 10, 2024 21:56:26 GMT
Post by keitha on Sept 10, 2024 21:56:26 GMT
With betfair they win lose or win
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Trump
Sept 10, 2024 22:10:56 GMT
Post by bernythedolt on Sept 10, 2024 22:10:56 GMT
You might then take a look at the exchanges, like Betfair Exchange, for example. That's the old model involving a bookie, the traditional spivvy 'crook' who sets whatever odds will guarantee to line his pockets. The exchanges mentioned by michaelc involve no bookie as such, so you're actually betting against another punter's perception. Furry muff - swap "the bookmarkers' perception" for "the other punters' perception". I'm well informed enough to know that betting is for mugs, and the only winners are the house. You could, of course, apply the same logic to share investments, another form of gambling. Or even premium bonds, where every month you are wagering the interest you would otherwise have picked up in a conventional interest-bearing account, in the hope it might win you a prize. This particular mug has found "everything in moderation and nothing to excess" has worked perfectly well as my yardstick. I've always bet low and just for fun .
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Trump
Sept 10, 2024 22:40:00 GMT
Post by bernythedolt on Sept 10, 2024 22:40:00 GMT
With betfair they win lose or win Win lose or win? Put the bottle down, or maybe try again with some punctuation ..... and who do you mean by "they"? If you mean the company providing the service which matches punters together rakes off a tiny margin for that service, then yes, that's true. It's around 1% or 2% taken off the winner's profit, as I recall, depending on how frequently you use the service (high rollers pay less). That doesn't strike me as an unreasonable fee. The loser pays nothing. Most services levy a fee in all walks of life, after all (cf. eBay...). It's not compulsory to use it, if one objects fundamentally. It's certainly way less costly than the markup (the "overround") applied by the high street bookies when you take their odds.
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Post by bracknellboy on Sept 11, 2024 7:32:27 GMT
[Apologies to anyone who thinks this is 'spam', but it brought a smile to my face]
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benaj
Member of DD Central
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Trump
Sept 11, 2024 7:40:16 GMT
via mobile
Post by benaj on Sept 11, 2024 7:40:16 GMT
All the betting markets on the exchange are moving towards the female president and democratic party. Not looking good for Trump supporters.
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 4,424
Likes: 2,545
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Trump
Sept 11, 2024 9:58:34 GMT
Post by keitha on Sept 11, 2024 9:58:34 GMT
With betfair they win lose or win Win lose or win? Put the bottle down, or maybe try again with some punctuation ..... and who do you mean by "they"? If you mean the company providing the service which matches punters together rakes off a tiny margin for that service, then yes, that's true. It's around 1% or 2% taken off the winner's profit, as I recall, depending on how frequently you use the service (high rollers pay less). That doesn't strike me as an unreasonable fee. The loser pays nothing. Most services levy a fee in all walks of life, after all (cf. eBay...). It's not compulsory to use it, if one objects fundamentally. It's certainly way less costly than the markup (the "overround") applied by the high street bookies when you take their odds. Sorry Bet fair win either way, you win you pay a small percentage, you lose then your "opponent" pays a small percentage.
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 4,424
Likes: 2,545
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Post by keitha on Sept 11, 2024 10:00:01 GMT
All the betting markets on the exchange are moving towards the female president and democratic party. Not looking good for Trump supporters. But good for those who backed Harris earlier in the year at big odds someone has had a small bet on Vance
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Trump
Sept 11, 2024 13:04:42 GMT
Post by captainconfident on Sept 11, 2024 13:04:42 GMT
Trump says he won that debate BY A LOT!. Expect to see those DJT shares soar when the market opens!
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Trump
Sept 11, 2024 13:14:20 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 11, 2024 13:14:20 GMT
Trump says he won that debate BY A LOT! Well, we never saw that coming.
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,422
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Trump
Sept 11, 2024 14:04:35 GMT
Post by michaelc on Sept 11, 2024 14:04:35 GMT
You might then take a look at the exchanges, like Betfair Exchange, for example. That's the old model involving a bookie, the traditional spivvy 'crook' who sets whatever odds will guarantee to line his pockets. The exchanges mentioned by michaelc involve no bookie as such, so you're actually betting against another punter's perception. Furry muff - swap "the bookmarkers' perception" for "the other punters' perception". I'm well informed enough to know that betting is for mugs, and the only winners are the house.You make me laugh sometimes Adrian. It was going so well until your final word. Helpful hint: There is no house in a betting exchange.
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
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Trump
Sept 11, 2024 14:26:22 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 11, 2024 14:26:22 GMT
Furry muff - swap "the bookmarkers' perception" for "the other punters' perception". I'm well informed enough to know that betting is for mugs, and the only winners are the house.You make me laugh sometimes Adrian. It was going so well until your final word. Helpful hint: There is no house in a betting exchange. They do it for free, do they?
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Trump
Sept 11, 2024 14:39:57 GMT
Post by captainconfident on Sept 11, 2024 14:39:57 GMT
Trump says he won that debate BY A LOT!. Expect to see those DJT shares soar when the market opens! Crash! But they were the bestest shares! They are not bigly anymore!
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