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Post by brightspark on Jun 16, 2024 11:23:20 GMT
A complete demilitarisation of the 4 disputed border provinces, a long term lease by Ukraine for Russia of the Crimean naval base with a guaranteed land corridor Russian access along the coast to it, and an acceptance by Ukraine that it will remain strictly neutral in regard to future military alliances is about the minimum which the Russians will accept I would surmise. Otherwise this grinding war will continue with the risk that a nuclear escalation may occur.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 16, 2024 11:25:03 GMT
Could Putin's latest "offer" of Ukranian total surrender, be just a maximalist starting point? Surely the end result is going to be where the front lines are on the ground? What would Putin need to do to comprehensively break through Ukranian lines and march on Kyiv? Could he simply conscript 10 million men, corresponding artillery and just do it ? Could Ukraine defend against that? Russia does have form in throwing in wave after wave and ultimately succeeding (at their own great cost). So is that possible or not ? If its not, what does Ukraine have to worry about? Air bombardment of their cities and infrastructure? They are also doing it to Russia now albeit currently at a smaller scale. Could they ramp that up thus having a significant bargaining chip to stop aerial assaults on both sides with a defacto border along the front line? Unsurprisingly the US has told Ukraine to reject the offer and to continue being pointlessly slaughtered by the Russians. If Zelensky represented the Ukrainian population he would enter into negotiations. If they do not accept this offer or at least use it as a starting point for negotiations the next step in this conflict is probably the unconditional surrender of Ukraine to the Russians and a few hundred thousand more Ukrainians killed after Russia starts it offensive that it is obviously amassing troops for. From a NATO perspective entering into negotiations with the Russians now is better than the total defeat in Ukraine that is now inevitable. There are only 2 conclusions that can be drawn from your statements: 1. You haven't got even the slightest clue about what is meant and entailed by a "negotiation" or 2. You actively want the unconditional surrender of all of the territories which Putin has decided he wants. Given that nobody can go through life without experiencing some of what 1) is, I would assume that 2) is the more probable explanation. Still, what Putin wants, angrysaveruk shall agree with. Oh, just to the starting point. "The US has TOLD Ukr to reject..." I don't know what bit of news you are actually reporting on there, but I think those of us who live on Planet Earth, but not in Russia, understand that Ukr does not need the US to tell it to reject his "offer". Its quite capable of coming to that decision itself. And of course it's not actually an "offer". Its actually a request for Ukr to cede not only territory which Russia currently illegally occupies, but also territory which Ukr currently occupies but which Putin has declared to be his own: by virtue of a declaration that it is annexed. Despite the fact there are no Russian troops there.
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
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Post by michaelc on Jun 16, 2024 13:44:47 GMT
A complete demilitarisation of the 4 disputed border provinces, a long term lease by Ukraine for Russia of the Crimean naval base with a guaranteed land corridor Russian access along the coast to it, and an acceptance by Ukraine that it will remain strictly neutral in regard to future military alliances is about the minimum which the Russians will accept I would surmise. Otherwise this grinding war will continue with the risk that a nuclear escalation may occur. I can't see the Ukranians agreeing to anything that leaves their defence to paper guarantees only. And doesn't Russia's negotiating power hinge on whether they can take the whole of Ukraine. Can they? Those with a claimed 40 years of reading books but without a scintilla of sympathy for the victims of war need not answer
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angrysaveruk
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Back and to the left..
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jun 16, 2024 14:03:00 GMT
A complete demilitarisation of the 4 disputed border provinces, a long term lease by Ukraine for Russia of the Crimean naval base with a guaranteed land corridor Russian access along the coast to it, and an acceptance by Ukraine that it will remain strictly neutral in regard to future military alliances is about the minimum which the Russians will accept I would surmise. Otherwise this grinding war will continue with the risk that a nuclear escalation may occur. I think the reality of the situation at this stage is Russia will want to take a large part of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. A positive is that Putin in his statement did not say Russia also wants Odessa, so do not want to land lock Ukraine. Ukraine has lost this US proxy war against Russia and is going to have to pay a heavy price (on top of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians already killed). The way forward now is for Ukraine to get rid of Zelensky and get someone who can negotiate with the Russians like Timoshenko*. If I was a Ukrainian facing the risk of being dragged off the street and sent to the front line where my life expectancy would be hours I would want the government to negotiate and end the conflict. As I have said many times before all these Lindsey Graham wannabes who want Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian would very quickly change their tune if they were personally having to go to the front and shoot it out with the Russians. * - I think Putin finds her traditional Russian Hairdo very attractive
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Post by brightspark on Jun 16, 2024 14:09:01 GMT
"A day can be a long time in politics." Neither Zelenskyy nor Putin can remain forever. Putin is in his 70's so another 20 years of him is unlikely. His successor may be worse but that is in the lap of the gods. Zelenskyy could vanish from the world stage for a variety of reasons - death, ill-health, democratic displacement included. America has a track record of being somewhat erratic in its overseas adventures - Vietnam, Afghanistan spring immediately to mind whilst the future US presidency is a minefield to predict. Climate change is going to bring about profound changes to behaviours throughout the whole world over the next 50 years. So my view for what it is worth is that it is at the stage that a bad peace is better than a bad war and the sooner politicians of all sides sit round a single table together and thrash it all out, the better.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 16, 2024 16:08:55 GMT
It is perfectly obvious that nothing is going to persuade the Ukrainians to sign some document with a country whose leader has reneged on every treaty he has signed, and who is desperate for a halt to the war in order to reconstruct his army in order to attack them again.
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Post by brightspark on Jun 16, 2024 16:45:59 GMT
Russia is unlikely to be obliged to retreat though conceivably it could if Putin's grip on power fell away. Zelenskyy would have to negotiate if support from the West became inadequate. Any of these scenarios is possible. Both combatants have reasons for negotiating and or not negotiating as the case may be. A function of politicians is to see their ways through these cans of worms and arrive at a peace which offers both parties a reason to jaw not war. Simply saying that one party or the other can never agree to this or that simply prolongs this bitter struggle. Very difficult constructive dialogue is the only way to a peaceful resolution. Pragmatism is also needed.
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k6
Posts: 249
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Post by k6 on Jun 16, 2024 17:05:21 GMT
Could Putin's latest "offer" of Ukranian total surrender, be just a maximalist starting point? Surely the end result is going to be where the front lines are on the ground? What would Putin need to do to comprehensively break through Ukranian lines and march on Kyiv? Could he simply conscript 10 million men, corresponding artillery and just do it ? Could Ukraine defend against that? Russia does have form in throwing in wave after wave and ultimately succeeding (at their own great cost). So is that possible or not ? If its not, what does Ukraine have to worry about? Air bombardment of their cities and infrastructure? They are also doing it to Russia now albeit currently at a smaller scale. Could they ramp that up thus having a significant bargaining chip to stop aerial assaults on both sides with a defacto border along the front line? Unsurprisingly the US has told Ukraine to reject the offer and to continue being pointlessly slaughtered by the Russians. If Zelensky represented the Ukrainian population he would enter into negotiations. If they do not accept this offer or at least use it as a starting point for negotiations the next step in this conflict is probably the unconditional surrender of Ukraine to the Russians and a few hundred thousand more Ukrainians killed after Russia starts it offensive that it is obviously amassing troops for. From a NATO perspective entering into negotiations with the Russians now is better than the total defeat in Ukraine that is now inevitable. What a russian puppet you are. It screams from miles away. I bet you are paid for those comments. But, since we now know it you might as well just keep continue
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Jun 16, 2024 19:43:35 GMT
It is perfectly obvious that nothing is going to persuade the Ukrainians to sign some document with a country whose leader has reneged on every treaty he has signed, and who is desperate for a halt to the war in order to reconstruct his army in order to attack them again. Are you even aware that Zelensky's mandate expired on 20 May 2024 one month after the cancelled elections. He's technically illegitmate. Meanwhile Putin got nearly as many votes as Biden in March and can rightly be considered the popularly electted Head of Russia. In addition there's a stupid law which 'prevents' Zelensky from conducting negotiations ... so he is out. The Ukrainian Parliament is the sovereign body (whether held at gunpoint or not) and they must decide. Will NATO and EU 'allow' them to be sovereign in such a case however? Cui Bono? (BTW your projection is showing)
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrianc on Jun 17, 2024 6:54:24 GMT
Meanwhile Putin got nearly as many votes as Biden in March and can rightly be considered the popularly electted Head of Russia. Do you think the Russian elections were free, fair, and open?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 17, 2024 9:16:18 GMT
Are you even aware that Zelensky's mandate expired on 20 May 2024 one month after the cancelled elections. He's technically illegitmate. I agree, it's not ideal. Are you even aware that Ukraine's constitution allows for the suspension of elections during martial law? No Russian invasion... no martial law... elections. Everybody is happy!
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 17, 2024 9:49:26 GMT
Are you even aware that Zelensky's mandate expired on 20 May 2024 one month after the cancelled elections. He's technically illegitmate. I agree, it's not ideal. Are you even aware that Ukraine's constitution allows for the suspension of elections during martial law? No Russian invasion... no martial law... elections. Everybody is happy! Putin has had his political opposition murdered. He's perfect. Its the minutae of the Ukrainian constitution that needs criticism. That's the position we should take is it?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jun 17, 2024 12:38:59 GMT
Meanwhile Putin got nearly as many votes as Biden in March and can rightly be considered the popularly electted Head of Russia. Do you think the Russian elections were free, fair, and open? Probably not given the fondness to eliminate the opposition. There is no doubt he remains popular and that is an uncomfortable truth we need to work with.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 17, 2024 12:40:13 GMT
Do you think the Russian elections were free, fair, and open? Probably not given the fondness to eliminate the opposition. There is no doubt he remains popular and that is an uncomfortable truth we need to work with. It's easy to be popular when there's no independent media, and when there's no opposition.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jun 17, 2024 12:51:27 GMT
I see that lots of young Ukranian men have gone into hiding to avoid conscription. I wonder if they believe that somebody else should be fighting their war for them, or if they believe Russia should simply be allowed to walk in and take whatever they like.
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