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Post by drphil on Apr 23, 2020 11:29:46 GMT
All 14/3/20 at c14.00 and still awaited:
375572 £2k Access 375574 £0.1k Access 375575 £7k Plus
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slush
Member of DD Central
Here to learn. Please be gentle.
Posts: 79
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Post by slush on Apr 23, 2020 15:46:38 GMT
Here are my figures to add to the data
5 Year 22/03/2020 386431 £0.9k Access 22/03/2020 386432 £8.1k
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Post by BrianC on Apr 23, 2020 17:10:43 GMT
Lower levels returned today. Just 0.6M. My request (373676 - 12th March - £3404) still not returned. James’ predictor thought yesterday so it’s running at least 2 days late at least unfortunately.
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Post by james91 on Apr 23, 2020 21:39:17 GMT
Lower levels returned today. Just 0.6M. My request (373676 - 12th March - £3404) still not returned. James’ predictor thought yesterday so it’s running at least 2 days late at least unfortunately. Sadly they look like they are coming through even slower than I estimated. Once yours comes through I'll update the prediction table - but it's going to push everyone's back even further. Perhaps those with larger investments were a bit more in tune with the risks, and therefore were quicker to withdraw - resulting in very few returns per day. Who knows... I'm sure Ratesetter could give a fairly accurate prediction if they wanted to - the 'more than a month' statement seems a bit disingenuous - but no doubt if they announced that withdrawals will take up to a year, it would cause even more problems - so I suppose they are just trying to what they believe is best.
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Post by cinereus on Apr 23, 2020 23:17:39 GMT
Surely rough amounts balance out over a large enough sample size? What do you mean by 'balance out'? People are trying to see roughly how long to get to their position in the queue. That might be only one or two days' worth of requests from the current date - if the person before them has a huge amount to withdraw, rough averages aren't going to be very helpful. Edit: For example, this person is quite close to me in the list, but has quite a lot to withdraw compared to my tiny £1.5k Happy to add amounts as others are doing: 13/03 - 374737 - access market - £248,000 14/04 - 397158 - 5 year market - $76,500 (Admittedly, this still isn't that helpful, because we will only have data for the few people posting here. But it's still far more helpful than looking at this without £ amounts) I mean precisely that. Looking at IDs which are moving in increments of 10-100. The difference between any 10-100 IDs is going to be, outliers excepted, much more similar than not. And definitely a more accurate aggregate metric than anything else we have.
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Post by jojo on Apr 24, 2020 9:50:48 GMT
Lower levels returned today. Just 0.6M. My request (373676 - 12th March - £3404) still not returned. James’ predictor thought yesterday so it’s running at least 2 days late at least unfortunately. Sadly they look like they are coming through even slower than I estimated. Once yours comes through I'll update the prediction table - but it's going to push everyone's back even further. Perhaps those with larger investments were a bit more in tune with the risks, and therefore were quicker to withdraw - resulting in very few returns per day. Who knows... I'm sure Ratesetter could give a fairly accurate prediction if they wanted to - the 'more than a month' statement seems a bit disingenuous - but no doubt if they announced that withdrawals will take up to a year, it would cause even more problems - so I suppose they are just trying to what they believe is best. Still look to me there are an average of 70-100 Access's requests dealt per business day, which make sense for BrianC to have one day gap with James91 prediction. (ie : 120 requests between BrianC and last one done on 22/04) I still think the average request is around 15k ( 1M per day / 70 Requests) so with 23k requests register, could be around 250-300M requested. I think queue time will be faster as we moved forward because - cancellations are probably people that have asked to late - Big amount like you said James may have been done first - 5 Years and 1 Year are done before Access so some requests have already be done.
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alanh
Posts: 556
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Post by alanh on Apr 24, 2020 10:07:03 GMT
Sadly they look like they are coming through even slower than I estimated. Once yours comes through I'll update the prediction table - but it's going to push everyone's back even further. Perhaps those with larger investments were a bit more in tune with the risks, and therefore were quicker to withdraw - resulting in very few returns per day. Who knows... I'm sure Ratesetter could give a fairly accurate prediction if they wanted to - the 'more than a month' statement seems a bit disingenuous - but no doubt if they announced that withdrawals will take up to a year, it would cause even more problems - so I suppose they are just trying to what they believe is best. Still look to me there are an average of 70-100 Access's requests dealt per business day, which make sense for BrianC to have one day gap with James91 prediction. (ie : 120 requests between BrianC and last one done on 22/04) I still think the average request is around 15k ( 1M per day / 70 Requests) so with 23k requests register, could be around 250-300M requested. I think queue time will be faster as we moved forward because - cancellations are probably people that have asked to late - Big amount like you said James may have been done first - 5 Years and 1 Year are done before Access so some requests have already be done. I think you numbers are wide of the mark. We have been told that 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest, so a rough calculation would mean that 10% of the loanbook is up for sale. The loanbook is approx £800m, so the queue is approx £80m (reducing by the cancellations each day). At £1m per day we can therefore expect the queue to clear in around 80 working days or 16 weeks.
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Post by jojo on Apr 24, 2020 10:17:14 GMT
Still look to me there are an average of 70-100 Access's requests dealt per business day, which make sense for BrianC to have one day gap with James91 prediction. (ie : 120 requests between BrianC and last one done on 22/04) I still think the average request is around 15k ( 1M per day / 70 Requests) so with 23k requests register, could be around 250-300M requested. I think queue time will be faster as we moved forward because - cancellations are probably people that have asked to late - Big amount like you said James may have been done first - 5 Years and 1 Year are done before Access so some requests have already be done. I think you numbers are wide of the mark. We have been told that 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest, so a rough calculation would mean that 10% of the loanbook is up for sale. The loanbook is approx £800m, so the queue is approx £80m (reducing by the cancellations each day). At £1m per day we can therefore expect the queue to clear in around 80 working days or 16 weeks. I actually agree on your calculation and that was the first expectation but since we have the Tracker by Star Dust, just trying to make sense of figures and currently pacing 70 Access Requests per business day is the average, maybe we could go for 100 requests done per business day with 70 for Access and others from 5 years and 1 year so 1M per business day/ 100 requests = 10K average per request which sound reasonable, 23k requests times 10k average still equal 230M . I know they have stated 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest, but this statement was 3 weeks ago, could be 7 out of 10 now which will imply 30% withdraw requested which give around 230-250M, same number as previous equation.
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Post by mdub on Apr 24, 2020 10:41:09 GMT
...and I am withdrawing 90%+ of my investment, but the remaining 10% means I am continuing to invest. That can play havoc with statistics!
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alanh
Posts: 556
Likes: 560
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Post by alanh on Apr 24, 2020 10:45:00 GMT
I think you numbers are wide of the mark. We have been told that 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest, so a rough calculation would mean that 10% of the loanbook is up for sale. The loanbook is approx £800m, so the queue is approx £80m (reducing by the cancellations each day). At £1m per day we can therefore expect the queue to clear in around 80 working days or 16 weeks. I actually agree on your calculation and that was the first expectation but since we have the Tracker by Star Dust, just trying to make sense of figures and currently pacing 70 Access Requests per business day is the average, maybe we could go for 100 requests done per business day with 70 for Access and others from 5 years and 1 year so 1M per business day/ 100 requests = 10K average per request which sound reasonable, 23k requests times 10k average still equal 230M . I know they have stated 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest, but this statement was 3 weeks ago, could be 7 out of 10 now which will imply 30% withdraw requested which give around 230-250M, same number as previous equation. The problem is you are making assumptions about the distribution of investor withdrawal amounts within the queue - there is no way of accurately knowing this. At the same time you now saying that the number for those continuing to invest "could be 7 out of 10" - it "could be" anything then! The communication sent from RS yesterday states that the figure is 9 out of 10. I think we are better off using the RS figure and going from there as opposed to coming up with a very speculative assumption of average withdrawal figures.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Apr 24, 2020 10:50:19 GMT
This statement is so misleading
We have been told that 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest. - FYI
I had 70K+ in RS.. Ive requested ALL of my Access, approx 40K. but still have 30K in 1yr and 5yr - so I still continue to invest, and have 40K in the access queue !
Ive left the longer dated stuff on the hope the provision fund kicks in and repays the loans at some stage. I did start a thread called Provision Fund Payouts/Early Cancellations of Loans. - to see if anyone had experienced a PF payout, but no one has reported on the thread yet
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 24, 2020 10:59:16 GMT
This statement is so misleading We have been told that 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest. - FYI I had 70K+ in RS.. Ive requested ALL of my Access, approx 40K. but still have 30K in 1yr and 5yr - so I still continue to invest, and have 40K in the access queue ! Ive left the longer dated stuff on the hope the provision fund kicks in and repays the loans at some stage. I did start a thread called Provision Fund Payouts/Early Cancellations of Loans. - to see if anyone had experienced a PF payout, but no one has reported on the thread yet An even more misleading example which will apply to lots of people - I've sold out entirely, but have a £4 (sub-£10) loan part that cannot be sold. I guarantee you that I count amongst the '9 out of 10' who are continuing to invest, because I technically am.
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slush
Member of DD Central
Here to learn. Please be gentle.
Posts: 79
Likes: 38
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Post by slush on Apr 24, 2020 14:41:40 GMT
Here are my figures to add to the data
5 Year 22/03/2020 386431 £0.9k Access 22/03/2020 386432 £8.1k Sorry, I got my fiqures reversed
5 Year 22/03/2020 386431 £8.1k Access 22/03/2020 386432 £0.9k
Apologies.
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Post by mpendle on Apr 25, 2020 14:58:11 GMT
Just received request 373563 around midday today (22nd April). Thanks for tracking - hopefully this helps others in the queue 6.9.1 Requested on the 12th March. Access 6.9.1
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Post by cassiopeia on Apr 26, 2020 10:59:47 GMT
It might be more useful to provide an estimated date of payment based on the number. Looking at the list it's taking about 1 month to get through withdrawal requests over the period of a day at present. So people like me who requested on the 17th March will be waiting until the Autumn at this rate.
Also why are people in the 1 year queue accessing their money more quickly? They seem to be prioritising these people.
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