johnt
Investing in Ratesetter, Zopa and Assetz Capital since 2013
Posts: 127
Likes: 71
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Post by johnt on Apr 22, 2020 9:24:22 GMT
It looks like there were a lot of requests right up until 21 March. If they're releasing about £5 million a day and it's taking about a week to process one day's worth of requests then that means there is approximately £35 million in the queue for each day that since around 10 March. 12 days x £35 million = £420 million worth of backlogged release requests! That equates to nearly half of the amount currently being lent (£854 million).
Very loose and approximate figures I know. Obviously if people cancel their release requests and / or people choose to re-invest then things will improve but seems unlikely to happen in the near future.
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ceejay
Posts: 972
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Post by ceejay on Apr 22, 2020 10:11:39 GMT
It looks like there were a lot of requests right up until 21 March. If they're releasing about £5 million a day and it's taking about a week to process one day's worth of requests then that means there is approximately £35 million in the queue for each day that since around 10 March. 12 days x £35 million = £420 million worth of backlogged release requests! That equates to nearly half of the amount currently being lent (£854 million). Very loose and approximate figures I know. Obviously if people cancel their release requests and / or people choose to re-invest then things will improve but seems unlikely to happen in the near future. I think you will find they are currently releasing in the order of £5M per WEEK.
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alanh
Posts: 556
Likes: 560
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Post by alanh on Apr 22, 2020 10:14:01 GMT
It looks like there were a lot of requests right up until 21 March. If they're releasing about £5 million a day and it's taking about a week to process one day's worth of requests then that means there is approximately £35 million in the queue for each day that since around 10 March. 12 days x £35 million = £420 million worth of backlogged release requests! That equates to nearly half of the amount currently being lent (£854 million). Very loose and approximate figures I know. Obviously if people cancel their release requests and / or people choose to re-invest then things will improve but seems unlikely to happen in the near future. I think you need to go back and check your numbers. This calculation is completely wrong.
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Post by beardedwonder on Apr 22, 2020 10:26:40 GMT
2 more here for the list
Access 381044 requested 18/3 5 Year 384550 requested 20/3
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Post by james91 on Apr 22, 2020 10:45:24 GMT
Wow, so you estimate investors who request to have their Access funds released today, would have to wait over a YEAR before their funds would become available?! That is a lot longer than Ratesetter suggest it should take (that being a month). I was expecting the releasing of funds to go back to normal again by the end of this year. Perhaps I was being too optimistic. I'd probably take these with a pinch of salt at the moment. As the releases come through, we should get a better idea on average number processed per day. Obviously this doesn't take account for different values of requests (so a handful of massive paybacks could be slowing the paybacks at the momennt) or cancellations - but once we have a few weeks worth, we should be able to get a rough idea. The more people that add their reference numbers and confirm payback, the more accurately we should be able to predict.
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johnt
Investing in Ratesetter, Zopa and Assetz Capital since 2013
Posts: 127
Likes: 71
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Post by johnt on Apr 22, 2020 11:03:21 GMT
It looks like there were a lot of requests right up until 21 March. If they're releasing about £5 million a day and it's taking about a week to process one day's worth of requests then that means there is approximately £35 million in the queue for each day that since around 10 March. 12 days x £35 million = £420 million worth of backlogged release requests! That equates to nearly half of the amount currently being lent (£854 million). Very loose and approximate figures I know. Obviously if people cancel their release requests and / or people choose to re-invest then things will improve but seems unlikely to happen in the near future. I think you need to go back and check your numbers. This calculation is completely wrong. Yeah I should said £5 million / week is being released but that doesn't affect my calculations. If they're releasing £5 million a week then it still means there's approximately £35 million that has been requested to be released per day between 10 March and 21 March (12 days). Unless someone else has better data to work with, it's going to be hard to give a more accurate estimate.
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Post by vv on Apr 22, 2020 11:29:14 GMT
Hello all,
Thanks for all this information gathering, it is very useful. I'll add my requests to the mix:
27/03/2020 - Access, ID is 390684
30/03/2020 - Access, ID is 392043
18/04/2020 - Access, ID is 398306
21/04/2020 - Access, ID is 398857, 1 Year, ID is 398858 Plus, ID is 398859.
Thank you!
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Post by cinereus on Apr 22, 2020 12:19:34 GMT
1 Year 374669
Requested 2020-03-13 20 09:06
Paid 2020-04-22 12:36
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2020 12:19:46 GMT
Yeah I should said £5 million / week is being released but that doesn't affect my calculations. If they're releasing £5 million a week then it still means there's approximately £35 million that has been requested to be released per day between 10 March and 21 March (12 days). Unless someone else has better data to work with, it's going to be hard to give a more accurate estimate. I think it would be more transparent to look at the number of reference numbers and assume an average release amount eg using the latest reference in post 1 (396642) and the oldest outstanding (373676) gives 22,966 requests. If each request is an average of 2k that gives £46 million in the queue. You can obviously update for the most recent reference number and different average withdrawal amounts but the answer is still basically a guess.
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Post by cinereus on Apr 22, 2020 12:22:29 GMT
Yeah I should said £5 million / week is being released but that doesn't affect my calculations. If they're releasing £5 million a week then it still means there's approximately £35 million that has been requested to be released per day between 10 March and 21 March (12 days). Unless someone else has better data to work with, it's going to be hard to give a more accurate estimate. I think it would be more transparent to look at the number of reference numbers and assume an average release amount eg using the latest reference in post 1 (396642) and the oldest outstanding (373676) gives 22,966 requests. If each request is an average of 2k that gives £46 million in the queue. You can obviously update for the most recent reference number and different average withdrawal amounts but the answer is still basically a guess. Yes that's one of two obvious methods of extrapolation.
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alanh
Posts: 556
Likes: 560
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Post by alanh on Apr 22, 2020 12:23:13 GMT
Yeah I should said £5 million / week is being released but that doesn't affect my calculations. If they're releasing £5 million a week then it still means there's approximately £35 million that has been requested to be released per day between 10 March and 21 March (12 days). Unless someone else has better data to work with, it's going to be hard to give a more accurate estimate. I think it would be more transparent to look at the number of reference numbers and assume an average release amount eg using the latest reference in post 1 (396642) and the oldest outstanding (373676) gives 22,966 requests. If each request is an average of 2k that gives £46 million in the queue. You can obviously update for the most recent reference number and different average withdrawal amounts but the answer is still basically a guess. That makes more sense. Or maybe take RS statement that 9 out of 10 investors continue to invest, implying about 10% of the loanbook is in RYI's and 10% of approx £800m = £80m
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Post by jojo on Apr 22, 2020 12:25:10 GMT
Yeah I should said £5 million / week is being released but that doesn't affect my calculations. If they're releasing £5 million a week then it still means there's approximately £35 million that has been requested to be released per day between 10 March and 21 March (12 days). Unless someone else has better data to work with, it's going to be hard to give a more accurate estimate. I think it would be more transparent to look at the number of reference numbers and assume an average release amount eg using the latest reference in post 1 (396642) and the oldest outstanding (373676) gives 22,966 requests. If each request is an average of 2k that gives £46 million in the queue. You can obviously update for the most recent reference number and different average withdrawal amounts but the answer is still basically a guess. I would give a go on the guess game :-) My based figure is 100 requests are dealt per business day, RS says 1M is done per business day. There are around 23 000 requests so they will need 230 business days to clear it all, and in term of amount, 230 * 1 M = 230M requested amount to draw.
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Post by p2pbbb on Apr 22, 2020 12:35:01 GMT
Yeah I should said £5 million / week is being released but that doesn't affect my calculations. If they're releasing £5 million a week then it still means there's approximately £35 million that has been requested to be released per day between 10 March and 21 March (12 days). Unless someone else has better data to work with, it's going to be hard to give a more accurate estimate. Its a pity that Ratesetter will not give accurate information which leads to this speculation. Hello everyone, A bit more information that I received: On 2nd April, a senior manager of investor relations from RS called me (I even think he said he was head, but I may have misheard). He said from that point in time, I should expect 6-8 weeks for my specific request to be released. My request was in the access market, made on 13th March. The tricky thing of course is that the queues are managed independently in each market, but based on (i) that piece of information, and (ii) the release amounts prior to that date (0.55-0.67m/day on average over a 7-day period), I estimated the total queue across markets on the 13th to be around £23-46m (i.e. 6 weeks * 7 days * 0.55m and 6*7*0.67m respectively). Release speeds have picked up, as you all have seen, so RS is now running at 0.70-0.98m/day (7 day weeks, rolling 7-day average) which makes me hopeful that queues will be processed more quickly. Happy to hear any thoughts on this or any further intel.
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Post by p2pbbb on Apr 22, 2020 12:37:00 GMT
adding mine to the mix:
13/03 - 374737 - access market 14/04 - 397158 - 5 year market
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Post by mpendle on Apr 22, 2020 12:58:08 GMT
Just received request 373563 around midday today (22nd April). Thanks for tracking - hopefully this helps others in the queue 6.9.1
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