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Post by mostlywrong on Jan 12, 2015 11:14:05 GMT
I'm at 12.1% 10.5% 9.5% not flipping, just building up over last 3 months very diversified Does anyone know how much longer this oversupply of cash compared with under-demand is going to go on? Everyone of my bids since mid December has failed due to large volume bids surging the interest rates down. Is this the arrival of high net worth individuals or companies in the market? I'm slowly moving my unspent money out of FC as I can see ratesetter at a pretty safe 6% just over the hill and even property at 8% with 1% cash back is looking attractive with less risk etc. I don't recall such a dip in opportunities at this time last year but I will check my diary. I do recall a dip in opportunities in late 2013 (Sep/Oct?) which is the time, IIRC, at which FC imposed the minimum lending rates. Until then, the average loan rate had been driven down to quite low levels (well below 6% for A and A+ loans) from the 8-10% rates that were prevalent when I started. I note that the sterling swap rates have weakened further and Barclays and HSBC are now offering 10 year fixed rate mortgages at <3%. That will affect the savings rates offered by all the banks in due course. Maybe there is worse to come; at least, from our perspective. My own (long) view was that once I decided to place the money in FC, it would stay there, fully invested at whatever rates were available, until a much better opportunity presented itself. I haven't yet changed my mind; my loan book is a 60 month investment which compounds at a good rate and is exactly how the big banks play the loans market. MW
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 11:33:01 GMT
Thanks MW, that gives a good perspective. I'll hunker down for a bit more and tidy up in AC as well.
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ianb
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Post by ianb on Jan 12, 2015 14:01:02 GMT
I recollect a very dreary January 2014 when the rates were abysmal and it lasted at least till the end of the month, maybe a little beyond. Then it flipped and went berserk and till the start of April there were tons of loans (100+/week sometimes) and not enough investors and loads finishing at 14%+. Happy days...... then it slumped again before Easter. So far, January has been consistent with last year, who knows if the later behaviour will follow ? Still. now's a good time for selling have been able to get away with nice premiums.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 12, 2015 14:31:08 GMT
The crazy mathematics have now ceased and my 15.2% return has gone. Am now back to a stable position
8.8%
10.6%
6.7%
After 2.5 years. The property loans have provided a really good opportunity to build the returns quickly without tax implications, but that run is drawing to a close. There are times to buy and times to sell on FC and you just have to go with it or take the long view - as with mostlywrong who is probably right - or move to another platform. Cash is coming back from these property loans and I will just have to see what turns up next. It's all good fun.
I am not sure I would want to play this game with real money, though, rather than with the FC virtual tokens and pretend banking.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 14:40:01 GMT
G...ulp
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jan 12, 2015 15:43:32 GMT
I am not sure I would want to play this game with real money, though, rather than with the FC virtual tokens and pretend banking. Where are you getting the FC virtual tokens? I had to pay "real money" for mine!
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 12, 2015 16:06:17 GMT
Where safe you getting 'real money' these days?? Surely you are not using gold bars or Krugerrands??
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jan 12, 2015 16:56:32 GMT
Where safe you getting 'real money' these days?? Surely you are not using gold bars or Krugerrands?? Nice try, but those aren't money (at least within the UK economy). Money is something "that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts" [1]. Gold is not accepted in most places where I obtain goods and services, therefore, at least to me, it is not a form of money. Perhaps I'll find some places that accept payment in gold in the future. If or when I do, I may start to consider gold as a form of money. For now it is something that is not money - I would have to sell it (for example at a gold dealer) in order to obtain money I could spend on goods, services, or repayment of debts.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 12, 2015 17:25:06 GMT
Well that's what I thought .. so basically we are all using the same food/services tokens issued by the local government .. might currently meet your definition of 'real money', but might be indistinguishable from monopoly money by Tuesday (ask the Germans). Real money went out with Sovereigns, afaiac .. but I'm happy to play FC with virtual money tokens. 8>.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jan 12, 2015 21:15:24 GMT
Well that's what I thought .. so basically we are all using the same food/services tokens issued by the local government .. might currently meet your definition of 'real money', but might be indistinguishable from monopoly money by Tuesday (ask the Germans). Real money went out with Sovereigns, afaiac .. but I'm happy to play FC with virtual money tokens. 8>. As I understand it, the definition of money hinges on where it is accepted, rather than in who issues it. Gold is accepted as a form of payment virtually nowhere that I know of, so isn't money within any context that matters to me. Perhaps you're prepared to accept a definition of "real money" that is not itself a subset of "money", but that just seems weird to me. Perhaps in your local area, gold is widely accepted in payments for goods and services etc., making it a form of money for you? Gold is certainly a "real investment". Investments being the things that you expect to hold their value (or even better to increase in value!) in the long term, and "money" being the stuff that you use to pay for your investments. Perhaps in your world, a gold dealer buys banknotes and electronic credits (using the gold he's already got as the money to do so) and sells banknotes etc. (accepting payment in gold) - however I think the more usual case is to consider the gold dealer to be buying and selling gold (with the banknotes or electronic fund transfers, etc. being the "money" used to "pay" in the transaction). Even the gold dealer's own "prices" typically reflect this. In any case, the original comment didn't seem to be about gold, until you hijacked it - I'd be interested in what blender had meant by contrasting "the FC virtual tokens and pretend banking" against "real money".
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 12, 2015 23:02:36 GMT
Real money is that which has value which I can exchange for goods and services when I need to, or a means of employing capital, as contrasted with Monopoly money or play money. It was only a silly comment on how online lending is similar to an online game. How do we know that the borrowers are real rather than virtual constructs in the FC game, that other lenders are real people rather than just bots in the game? Loan parts are just tokens. Essentially it is only the bank transfers which confirm that we play with real money, and only the withdrawal of all our funds into our banks which confirms that our gains and losses are real - in the sense of affecting our purchasing power. This assumes that we believe that online banking is real, since there is nothing visible or tangible even there - and banks are only huge edifices of confidence built on imaginary sand (as we saw when we baled them out).
Given the similarity of lending on a platform to a virtual game, it is unsurprising that it is conducive to risk taking. I was just suggesting that others should be more prudent than I am, in my porcine ignorance.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 13, 2015 0:01:01 GMT
And mine was a similar tongue in cheek comment about the lack of realness of money these days. I don't guess sarcasm and humour work very well online, 8<. Must use more Smiley's. Afaiac money is also about the chance of it being worth something tomorrow .. I.e. when, as well as who, will accept it. My sovereign has more chance, even if I have to convert it a bit first.
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Post by mostlywrong on Jan 13, 2015 10:33:51 GMT
Real money is that which has value which I can exchange for goods and services when I need to, or a means of employing capital, as contrasted with Monopoly money or play money. It was only a silly comment on how online lending is similar to an online game. How do we know that the borrowers are real rather than virtual constructs in the FC game, that other lenders are real people rather than just bots in the game? Loan parts are just tokens. Essentially it is only the bank transfers which confirm that we play with real money, and only the withdrawal of all our funds into our banks which confirms that our gains and losses are real - in the sense of affecting our purchasing power. This assumes that we believe that online banking is real, since there is nothing visible or tangible even there - and banks are only huge edifices of confidence built on imaginary sand (as we saw when we baled them out). Given the similarity of lending on a platform to a virtual game, it is unsurprising that it is conducive to risk taking. I was just suggesting that others should be more prudent than I am, in my porcine ignorance. I agree. How do we know that any of this online business is real? Should I be taking screenshots of each account at 6pm each evening just in case...? Well written, Blender!
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Post by mostlywrong on Jan 13, 2015 10:46:17 GMT
And mine was a similar tongue in cheek comment about the lack of realness of money these days. I don't guess sarcasm and humour work very well online, 8<. Must use more Smiley's. Afaiac money is also about the chance of it being worth something tomorrow .. I.e. when, as well as who, will accept it. My sovereign has more chance, even if I have to convert it a bit first. I have lived and worked in various countries over the years. At various times, my colleagues and I have had cash, cheques, travellers cheques and credit cards refused for various reasons, not always legitimately. But never has a gold sovereign been refused, even though the agreed rate of exchange never reflected its true value - even after a period of haggling! Sovereigns are portable and tangible insurance. MW
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 13, 2015 11:30:06 GMT
And mine was a similar tongue in cheek comment about the lack of realness of money these days. I don't guess sarcasm and humour work very well online, 8<. Must use more Smiley's. Afaiac money is also about the chance of it being worth something tomorrow .. I.e. when, as well as who, will accept it. My sovereign has more chance, even if I have to convert it a bit first. I have lived and worked in various countries over the years. At various times, my colleagues and I have had cash, cheques, travellers cheques and credit cards refused for various reasons, not always legitimately. But never has a gold sovereign been refused, even though the agreed rate of exchange never reflected its true value - even after a period of haggling! Sovereigns are portable and tangible insurance. MW Not alwayswrong sometimesright. FC would not accept your gold sovereign in exchange for chips (to play with). Not until it had been laundered through a gold dealer and turned virtual by a bank. Then it would be sufficiently abstract.
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