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Post by RateSetter on Jul 22, 2020 16:21:55 GMT
Good afternoon everyone. Today we have delivered £0.4m and the full update is below:
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Post by RateSetter on Jul 23, 2020 16:19:53 GMT
Good afternoon. Today we have delivered £0.4m, and the full update is below:
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 23, 2020 16:34:55 GMT
Good afternoon. Today we have delivered £0.4m, and the full update is below: I didn't think RS did this on a Saturday or am I mistaken. Edit: Oops, I guess it's been a long day and I've lost track of time either that or my brain is fuzzled.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 24, 2020 11:02:12 GMT
I've been watching the A/P/M market data during the day more often. When I see something like the attached 'borrower offer', I assume this must be an RYI request (it's only 1 'order'; and the amount surely means it cannot be a new loan?). There have been several of these really quite large figures recently, so this may(!) explain the 'slow' progress of late, including hardly any queue movement on some days or even none? I don't know if anyone has any other theories that would disagree that we can see RYI requests going through processing in this way? Attachments:
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Jul 24, 2020 11:17:08 GMT
I've been watching the A/P/M market data during the day more often. When I see something like the attached 'borrower offer', I assume this must be an RYI request (it's only 1 'order'; and the amount surely means it cannot be a new loan?). There have been several of these really quite large figures recently, so this may(!) explain the 'slow' progress of late, including hardly any queue movement on some days or even none? I don't know if anyone has any other theories that would disagree that we can see RYI requests going through processing in this way? I guess that your assumption that it can't be a new loan is based on the fact that it is for a very un-round number? While that doesn't sound unreasonable, surely it is also possible that a not-very-round number (£138k, for example) might turn into something like what we see here with the addition of various borrowing fees? And/or retained interest?
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 24, 2020 11:25:46 GMT
I've been watching the A/P/M market data during the day more often. When I see something like the attached 'borrower offer', I assume this must be an RYI request (it's only 1 'order'; and the amount surely means it cannot be a new loan?). There have been several of these really quite large figures recently, so this may(!) explain the 'slow' progress of late, including hardly any queue movement on some days or even none? I don't know if anyone has any other theories that would disagree that we can see RYI requests going through processing in this way? I guess that your assumption that it can't be a new loan is based on the fact that it is for a very un-round number? While that doesn't sound unreasonable, surely it is also possible that a not-very-round number (£138k, for example) might turn into something like what we see here with the addition of various borrowing fees? And/or retained interest? Yes indeed, the bit in bold - but I should've added 'un-round' and that the figure is also far higher than any loan I've seen in my Access portfolio (but that's of course not to say that they don't exist). This is a good point, though. I had thought that RS seemed to charge fees on a rolling % basis rather than up-front, but even if you're right, those fees are not payable to the investor, so surely they wouldn't appear in the marketplace as part of the principal? Absolutely could be wrong, though.
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johnt
Investing in Ratesetter, Zopa and Assetz Capital since 2013
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Post by johnt on Jul 24, 2020 13:31:31 GMT
I've been watching the A/P/M market data during the day more often. When I see something like the attached 'borrower offer', I assume this must be an RYI request (it's only 1 'order'; and the amount surely means it cannot be a new loan?). There have been several of these really quite large figures recently, so this may(!) explain the 'slow' progress of late, including hardly any queue movement on some days or even none? I don't know if anyone has any other theories that would disagree that we can see RYI requests going through processing in this way? I wouldn't read into the unrounded figure too much, it could be that it was a round figure before some loans got matched up. That borrower offer amount will continue to decrease as more loans get matched up. For example, if I decided I wanted to put on the market £1,000 @ 3% then you would instantly see that borrower offer drop to £138,212.76 as it would get matched up immediately.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 24, 2020 13:43:07 GMT
I've been watching the A/P/M market data during the day more often. When I see something like the attached 'borrower offer', I assume this must be an RYI request (it's only 1 'order'; and the amount surely means it cannot be a new loan?). There have been several of these really quite large figures recently, so this may(!) explain the 'slow' progress of late, including hardly any queue movement on some days or even none? I don't know if anyone has any other theories that would disagree that we can see RYI requests going through processing in this way? I wouldn't read into the unrounded figure too much, it could be that it was a round figure before some loans got matched up. That borrower offer amount will continue to decrease as more loans get matched up. For example, if I decided I wanted to put on the market £1,000 @ 3% then you would instantly see that borrower offer drop to £138,212.76 as it would get matched up immediately. Another good point, but two things on this: 1) I was refreshing pretty quickly at the time and, while it's possible someone got in there very quickly, it seemed to appear in the market at this figure. 2) If you look at the attachment, I'm not sure if this is how the market always operates. That 3.0% Lender Offer was already there before this 3.0% Buyer Offer appeared, and the former did not decrease in number/disappear when the latter was added. The latter also stayed there for some time before it was eventually matched off and disappeared (it all looked very manual to me). But again, I agree of course that this is just supposition and we cannot know this for sure. If anyone else is boring enough to have a watch of this market, do let me know
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Post by RateSetter on Jul 24, 2020 16:09:49 GMT
Good afternoon. Today we have delivered £0.3m, and the full update is below:
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 24, 2020 18:09:05 GMT
well that's one way to put it - at this rate it is going to take about 2 years for my capital to be returned by which time about 50% will have been returned by expired contracts. I think we have virtually halted the Access release may have been a tad more honest
Latest figures for the week yet again very disappointing and I think £0.3m is a new daily low? On the plus side a bit better than last week
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Jul 24, 2020 18:17:45 GMT
I think £0.3m is a new daily low? Equal with four previous stated daily amounts of £0.3m With rounding, you may be correct (but statistically unlikely).
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Post by diversifier on Jul 25, 2020 8:32:10 GMT
I think £0.3m is a new daily low? Equal with four previous stated daily amounts of £0.3m With rounding, you may be correct (but statistically unlikely). However, the drop in weekly figure below the previous plateau of £3.5m *is* now statistically significant. With two consecutive figures of 2.4, 2.7, we can now be sure that the average is below £3m per week. Going through the maths, that shows the level of reinvestment across the platform has now dropped to 50% [The not-very-hard-maths: RS monthly performance data can be crunched to calculate “investor cashflow available for reinvestment” currently about £50m/month = £11.5m/wk. RS stated policy is to split lending equally between RYI and new lending. Therefore, RYI £3m means £6m total reinvestment out of £11.5m, which is 50%]
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 25, 2020 9:34:44 GMT
However, the drop in weekly figure below the previous plateau of £3.5m *is* now statistically significant. With two consecutive figures of 2.4, 2.7, we can now be sure that the average is below £3m per week. Going through the (not-very-hard) maths, that shows the level of reinvestment across the platform has now dropped below 50% diversifier , sorry to do this, but as long as you keep making these assertions with such definitive confidence that you're correct, I'm going to say something. Contrast with my posts above illustrating my uncertainty and that I'm piecing bits of evidence together without being sure. Your post is completely statistically illiterate. - Nothing you specify is 'statistically significant'. Statistical significance allows us to reject a null hypothesis at a certain level of confidence based on a statistical test (e.g. t-test, z-test etc.). You seem to just be using it as a meaningless buzzword. - "We can now be sure that the average is below £3m per week" - what average? The average of the last two weeks: yes of course, that's pretty obvious. The average of all weeks so far: absolutely not. Again, what are you even saying here? - How can you know the level of reinvestment so confidently without knowing the levels of loan repayment and levels of new lending for this month? (Just for starters) [Edit: You've now added some calculations. I'm afraid that I fail to follow these also.]
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 25, 2020 10:40:48 GMT
I thought we needed a bit more simplicity here so have a look at this table I have - not saying it means much as its simply taking the rolling averages from the start to date for both RYI and Weekly Volumes. Not sure it means that much but I just thought it was interesting none the less. I'll let others shoot it down or if there is anything to gain from it explain why perhaps! I'm definitely basing any decisions on it that's for sure. I think its a rolling average who knows i'm sure a math's genius or 2 will be along real soon
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 25, 2020 10:57:05 GMT
No one is going to shoot you down, aju , when you don't make any assertions about what it definitely shows Thanks for the table! Please can you confirm what the 'weekly volume' refers to? Is it the volume of funds matched in the market (so, including both new lending and RYI transfers)? [Edit: Actually, can this be right? The weekly volume figure is sometimes lower than the RYI figure... hmm...] [Edit Edit: It looks like the average is maybe just an average across all the weeks, updated each week, rather than a moving rolling average? Although I haven't done the sums!]
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