aju
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Post by aju on Aug 18, 2020 15:19:37 GMT
Not sure if anyone is watching but just checked the Lending Volume @16:00, and it would seem nearly 3.42M has been lent/relent since 10:00am this morning. That's quite a hefty lump for a single day for quite a while. The max amount in a single day last week 2M on Wednesday. Last week the biggest day was 1.95M and in 3 more hours than this reading!. Yes, £2.4m was available at the standard going rate in A/P/M this morning. A similar amount was available yesterday, but only some of it was eaten up so much of it stuck around for today. It's now all been eaten up, and more. At one point there were Borrower orders for roughly £2.5m sitting there - by this point, in fact, much more than was available from Lenders. There's still £500k of it left, now sitting at 3.6/4.1/4.6%, having driven up rates due to it hoovering up all those Lender funds. Who knows if any of this went to RYI requests; but, given how much is still waiting to be matched with Lenders, it seems unlikely that much at all was (if any). I wonder if they had some bottleneck issues yesterday, or just a busy returns day perhaps. My numbers for LV yesterday were 0.57M which was lower than RYI? and for more hours 10:24 - 18:45. way down in the detail I know but odd none the less. Unless its just one of them days. Zopa has those but it's easier to predict for me as they tell me in one of their screens.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 18, 2020 15:25:28 GMT
I wonder if they had some bottleneck issues yesterday, or just a busy returns day perhaps. My numbers for LV yesterday were 0.57M which was lower than RYI? and for more hours 10:24 - 18:45. way down in the detail I know but odd none the less. Unless its just one of them days. Yes, that £570k figure is about consistent with what appeared to be used up in A/P/M yesterday. This amount was then (more or less) replaced today with further repayments, and then the whole thing was eaten up (and more). This is just exactly the increased levels of new lending in A/P/M (stymying RYI processing) that I and others have been talking about on here in recent weeks. And, sadly, it's not getting any better. Edit: In terms of 'bottlenecks' - As others have commented, I don't think lending has ever been particularly linear across the week. I don't know if peaks and troughs across individual days are indicative of anything much - better to look at longer periods.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 18, 2020 15:42:21 GMT
I wonder if they had some bottleneck issues yesterday, or just a busy returns day perhaps. My numbers for LV yesterday were 0.57M which was lower than RYI? and for more hours 10:24 - 18:45. way down in the detail I know but odd none the less. Unless its just one of them days. Yes, that £570k figure is about consistent with what appeared to be used up in A/P/M yesterday. This amount was then (more or less) replaced today with further repayments, and then the whole thing was eaten up (and more). This is just exactly the increased levels of new lending in A/P/M (stymying RYI processing) that I and others have been talking about on here in recent weeks. And, sadly, it's not getting any better. Edit: In terms of 'bottlenecks' - As others have commented, I don't think lending has ever been particularly linear across the week. I don't know if peaks and troughs across individual days are indicative of anything much - better to look at longer periods. Yeah I'd concur that it is too close but it does look like the LV has increased gradually as the RYI has reduced - last weeks LV number was the highest since 23/3 when it was 10.83 and the RYI is the lowest since RS reports started. Ok so there is some up an down but it does look like RYI is suffering as you say. Perhaps its in sympathy with the covid curve LV is on its way up again but slowly ... The overall LV figures were on a general upward trajectory, a few blip weeks and Christmas/New year periods until the wall of RYI in early march hit. Its quite a while since RYI got stuck in 13th march for Apm but I guess me being out at early may there is some time to wait so to speak. Oh well won;t be long to find out todays numbers.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 18, 2020 15:49:25 GMT
Oh well won;t be long to find out todays numbers. But unfortunately - as ever - we don't get the number we actually want: a per-market breakdown. So it won't actually help us with the above discussion re A/P/M, sadly.
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Post by RateSetter on Aug 18, 2020 16:30:06 GMT
Good afternoon all. Today we have delivered £0.7m and the full update is below:
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 18, 2020 17:54:05 GMT
bit more like it - be interesting to see where we are at the end of the week...
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 19, 2020 8:47:56 GMT
bit more like it - be interesting to see where we are at the end of the week... Ok so 0.7M looks good for RYI but after that ran the overnight lending Volume (LV), (mostly churn I guess ) between 17:36 and 9:34 this morning, was £657,853 after yesterdays 3.43 of LV compared to the 0.7M returned through RYI. The RYI returned in the the last two has not been great. The last time is was above a million for a single day was 3/8. Now this is quite a detailed way of looking at RYI and the a/p/m has been stuck at 13/3 for quite some time (I'll look back and edit it in when it moved to 13/3). I agree it will be interesting to see where the week ends, especially as the last week was the lowest since the wall appeared and RS was detailing the weekly payouts. Edit: RS has been releasing figures every week night since early Mar with varying degrees of clarity I have looked back and catalogued the periods of change for Apm( no many sadly) May 1st delivering A/P/M from 12th March June 19th delivering A/P/M from evening of 12th March July 1st delivering A/P/M from 13th March August 18th delivering A/P/M from 13th March (still!)
Its interesting that according to RS the bulk of requests slowed after 16th Mar and I didn't ours in til May 4th/5th so it will be completed by its self before it gets to us. The 5Y is a bit better and for us this was released last week - the bulk for us was in there and the 1Y which I feel will release naturally. However Mrs Aju still has med 4 figure in the Access product myself less. On a brighter note, for my pension increases, the CPI went up to 1%, I need it to go up again in Sep to get an even better rise - every little bit really does count when retired.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 19, 2020 9:30:48 GMT
Ok so 0.7M looks good for RYI but after that ran the overnight lending Volume (LV), (mostly churn I guess ) between 17:36 and 9:34 this morning, was £657,853 after yesterdays 3.43 of LV compared to the 0.7M returned through RYI. The RYI returned in the the last two has not been great. The last time is was above a million for a single day was 3/8. Now this is quite a detailed way of looking at RYI and the a/p/m has been stuck at 13/3 for quite some time (I'll look back and edit it in when it moved to 13/3). I agree it will be interesting to see where the week ends, especially as the last week was the lowest since the wall appeared and RS was detailing the weekly payouts. Firstly, that amount lent out overnight is mostly just the Borrower money left over from yesterday (mentioned here), which was matched-off when repayments (and, thus, re-investment ££) came in this morning. Secondly, what do you mean by "mostly churn I guess"? I've been wondering what you meant by "churn" for a little while now... As previously discussed on several occasions, everything you see in Lending Volume is just new lending. Thirdly, I wouldn't read too much into patterns re RYI processing amounts (both you and adrian77 ). Right now, the vast majority of RYI processing is 5 Year. How much 5 Year processing there is is entirely dictated by how much re-investment into 5 Year there is. This, in turn, is entirely dependent on how much lending is repaid each day. That's the vast bulk of it - nothing much to analyse. Finally, just to re-state once again, none of this tells you anything about A/P/M in particular - which, as I understand it, is what you and adrian77 are left in. The daily RYI processing figure could be £10m; but maybe none of this is for A/P/M. Now that we know this, there is little point getting especially excited about the RYI processing figures if you're waiting for an A/P/M RYI.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 19, 2020 9:46:47 GMT
Ok so 0.7M looks good for RYI but after that ran the overnight lending Volume (LV), (mostly churn I guess ) between 17:36 and 9:34 this morning, was £657,853 after yesterdays 3.43 of LV compared to the 0.7M returned through RYI. The RYI returned in the the last two has not been great. The last time is was above a million for a single day was 3/8. Now this is quite a detailed way of looking at RYI and the a/p/m has been stuck at 13/3 for quite some time (I'll look back and edit it in when it moved to 13/3). I agree it will be interesting to see where the week ends, especially as the last week was the lowest since the wall appeared and RS was detailing the weekly payouts. Firstly, that amount lent out overnight is mostly just the Borrower money left over from yesterday (mentioned here), which was matched-off when repayments (and, thus, re-investment ££) came in this morning. Secondly, what do you mean by "mostly churn I guess"? I've been wondering what you meant by "churn" for a little while now... As previously discussed on several occasions, everything you see in Lending Volume is just new lending. Thirdly, I wouldn't read too much into patterns re RYI amounts (both you and adrian77 ). Right now, the vast majority of RYI processing is 5 Year. How much 5 Year processing there is is entirely dictated by how much re-investment into 5 Year there is. This, in turn, is entirely dependent on how much lending is repaid each day. That's the vast bulk of it - nothing much to analyse. Finally, just to re-state once again, none of this tells you anything about A/P/M in particular - which, as I understand it, is what you and adrian77 are left in. The daily figure could be £10m; but maybe none of this is for A/P/M. Now that we know this, there is little point getting especially excited about the RYI processing figures. Churn in my view is the general process of reinvestment from loan payments and interest payments (Borrower money as you call it). It does not contain RYI payments to lenders it never has and never will in my view unless RS changes the LV screen to include this but it won't as its just there primarily for 1Y, 5Y and Rolling(access now) the old products - the newer products do not appear at all. As people end lending in the 1Y and 5Y the LV screens will be removed. Technically it could split the newer products up but RS I guess don;t want to do this. The thing is you seem to be focussed on the APM more than me, I on the other hand have other products too as do many others especially on these forums although many will have long gone I feel - hence there is way less traffic on this forum on day to day. (Technically if one still has the 1Y and 5Y there are ways to keep the daily and weekly LV information and I have taken steps to keep those when my 1Y and 5Y finally clear.)
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 19, 2020 9:55:12 GMT
Churn in my view is the general process of reinvestment from loan payments and interest payments (Borrower money as you call it). It does not contain RYI payments to lenders it never has and never will in my view unless RS changes the LV screen to include this but it won't as its just there primarily for 1Y, 5Y and Rolling(access now) the old products - the newer products do not appear at all. As people end lending in the 1Y and 5Y the LV screens will be removed. Technically it could split the newer products up but RS I guess don;t want to do this. The thing is you seem to be focussed on the APM more than me, I on the other hand have other products too as do many others especially on these forums although many will have long gone I feel - hence there is way less traffic on this forum on day to. (Technically if one still has the 1Y and 5Y there are ways to keep the daily and weekly LV information and I have taken steps to keep those when my 1Y and 5Y finally clear.) Oh gosh - I can see where some of the misunderstandings have come from! No this is absolutely not what I call 'Borrower money'! I call Borrower money the money that appears in the Borrower column on the markets page - i.e. lending requests from borrowers. I call re-investment... re-investment (which you, it seems, call 'churn'). In reality, though, what the Lending Volumes actually show is all new lending, regardless of whether the lender funding is through re-investment or genuinely 'new' investment (the latter of which, presumably, is rather minute now). It might be helpful if we stick to the vocab that most people seem to use on here - although I appreciate that it's not my place to dictate this. Re markets, my point was more that analyses of these 'in the round' aren't very fruitful. Lending Volume is mainly coming from A/P/M, with some from 1 Year too it seems (with nothing in 5 Year). Meanwhile RYI processing is almost entirely only in 5 Year. So, comparing across these is somewhat problematic - only a market-by-market analysis matters.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 19, 2020 10:33:53 GMT
I'm sorry I seem to have annoyed you, again so i'll bow out again now. I don't mean to, perhaps its your style that I don't seem to understand who knows but best we stop now. Apologies
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 19, 2020 10:44:08 GMT
I'm sorry I seem to have annoyed you, again so i'll bow out again now. I don't mean to, perhaps its your style that I don't seem to understand who knows but best we stop now. Apologies You definitely shouldn't take me politely responding to clarify certain things as annoyance..! I try to write clearly and concisely on here - I'm not going to patronise you by peppering my sentences with emojis just to assure you that I'm writing what I'm saying with a smile ( ) - but I assure you that I am! It's good that I now understand what you mean by 'churn' and that you (hopefully) understand what I mean by 'Borrower money'! It's important to be clear about these things or we get nowhere on here. If you have any disagreement with anything I've written in the above post, then please do specifically point to it and query it. That's the point of this place, after all!
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Post by RateSetter on Aug 19, 2020 16:03:35 GMT
Good afternoon. Today we have delivered £0.3m and the full update follows below:
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Post by RateSetter on Aug 20, 2020 16:30:35 GMT
Good afternoon. Today we have delivered £0.4m. Full update below:
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 21, 2020 14:23:42 GMT
I recently asked RS some questions about lending volume and RYI and got the following response, eventually - had to ask a few time and clarify things but I did get a response that they were openly comfortable with me posting - suitably redacted of course. Q1. I was basically trying to get a clear understanding of what was included in the Lending Volume(LV) that is reported daily in the rate trends screens for some lenders if you want to monitor it and weekly since the the start of RS I believe. I wanted to be sure that RYI sales were not being included when they were sold and repurchased - essentially a new loan to the buyer. It seems from the above they are not. So the LV data refers to new borrowing so clearly there is still quite a bit of new lending to borrowers considering the current situation.
Q2. I was trying to understand if someone from Access sold a loan it could be purchased by Plus and Max rates depending I guess.
Q3. I was trying to understand if the APM market subsidised the non APM markets - some people have suggested it before I think. It appears this is not the case but what is clear from answer 3 though is that there is quite a bit of the New Borrowing (New loans) is being used by the liquidity in the APM market. This clearly will slow the release capability from those markets. It also means that whilst LV is not isolating loans to the APM it would seem they might be the ones being favoured of late for new borrowing, perhaps!
Anyway it may help some it may not help anyone but I'm happy with their answers and it would seem that one of reasons for APM being so slow perhaps is because it's servicing many more new loans than the others.
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