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Post by jojo on Apr 16, 2020 14:17:00 GMT
Yes you are right, that is the main reason of this rally and hope UK government will do the same and include p2p players to the after Covid equation and participate to the transmission of the money much needed by lots of people.
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Post by jojo on Apr 17, 2020 7:22:13 GMT
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Apr 17, 2020 9:41:28 GMT
Noticed the "shorters" are being quiet !
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Post by jojo on Apr 17, 2020 9:43:48 GMT
Noticed the "shorters" are being quiet ! Yes Keitha, I was going to say the same, when share drop, we have numerous messages, when share is moving from 22 to 135 , none ....
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Post by Mr Smith on Apr 17, 2020 10:25:16 GMT
Noticed the "shorters" are being quiet ! If you're looking for the shorters, they'll be long gone. I looked at the share price yesterday and thought !!! Today all becomes apparent. FC wont lend out your money and you can;'t get it back. Instead they are lending out "money" magicked out of thin air by the bank of england, while your money is devalued by inflation. Then there is the share price rise....someone in the know yesterday started buying shares. This looks like insider trading to me You might as well apply for a £2M loan and tell them to shove it when they come looking for the money. Sajid David IMHO is either an idiot, a pasty, stupid, the cleverest man alive, or evil. Take your pick.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 17, 2020 10:29:39 GMT
Sajid David IMHO is either an idiot, a pasty, stupid, the cleverest man alive, or evil. Take your pick. But seriously yeah, it's a rich reward that's not at all deserved, and they've been more than happy to immediately offload retail investors the moment something better came along. edit: yeah not sure whether Sajid deserves to be called a pasty. He's definitely more of a potato than anything.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Apr 17, 2020 14:13:16 GMT
Goodness me classic example of investor herd behaviour. Must be good news so let’s all pile in without having any understanding of the mechanics of FC.
CBILS will shove loads of money into FC over the next twelve months or so for which FC will get a small margin – probably much smaller than normal lenders pay. At some point the scheme ends then what?
Having given up on retail lenders how will these be easily restarted if at all?
Retail lenders will have lost so much from defaults in the great depression then most will be frightened off anyway (forget securitisation to investment funds as a plan).
FC still does not have a working business model. The CBIL loan solves nothing it just provides a short term fix.
The level of CBIL investment will not produce a profit for FC - it would have to be billions and for years and at good margins to sustain any sort of reasonable share valuation.
Cash burn continues and hey at some point the share price again goes down. There is no prospect of positive earnings growth here – ever.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Apr 17, 2020 16:23:11 GMT
The way I see it the stock price has recovered to the level where the equity value exceeds the cash on the balance sheet BECAUSE they have stopped doing "normal" business, because the more business they did, the worse it got.
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Mucho P2P
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Post by Mucho P2P on Apr 17, 2020 17:48:19 GMT
Noticed the "shorters" are being quiet ! Only taking govt back borrowers, thats "cheating" by FC, as proves that their model is inferior to the free govt money.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Apr 29, 2020 22:16:13 GMT
Noticed the "shorters" are being quiet ! Yes Keitha, I was going to say the same, when share drop, we have numerous messages, when share is moving from 22 to 135 , none .... But it is no longer FC. Now it is a roach motel, your money checked in but you can't get it out. The share price has gone up because they have stopped doing their normal business. This is a pretty amazing phenomenon, company does its normal business and gets slaughtered, stops doing its normal business and becomes essential a cog in a socialist planned economy and share price jumps up. Doesn't say a lot about them.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Apr 30, 2020 14:22:30 GMT
Posting as an original shorter – I first brought this up at 330p per share then last June when I think it was about 245p per share.
The fundamentals are that there is no viable business in the FC model. At some point FC will either run out of cash or be bought out by someone who can salvage something out of the wreckage.
When this will happen is anyone’s guess. IMO the window to short FC has long since gone.
Shares will possibly bounce around the £1 mark in a random sort of way but eventually down is the only way to go – sorry optimists.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on May 1, 2020 8:57:42 GMT
And that I think is exactly the problem - FC/FSA/Government have not learnt the simple fact if not run properly P2P is a magnet for failed businesses and dodgy characters. All what will happen now is more money will be poured into far too many lame ducks and the fallout will be even bigger.
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pip
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Post by pip on May 1, 2020 10:11:13 GMT
And that I think is exactly the problem - FC/FSA/Government have not learnt the simple fact if not run properly P2P is a magnet for failed businesses and dodgy characters. All what will happen now is more money will be poured into far too many lame ducks and the fallout will be even bigger. Totally agree the amount of rubbish on the balance sheets of governments in the next few years will be immense. However at present the same can be said for my P2P loans, a list of loans to businesses, most of which are firmly shut. Can't see many of these repaying their loans. Any chance the CBIL will provide loans to these companies to allow them to repay my rotten loans? FWIW as a very boring accountant I do my own little personal balance sheet. I have taken a 50% provision on my P2P loans, will reassess every month but based on current outlook seems reasonable. In terms of the FC share price. To be honest I will never be investing in p2p again, the risk/reward just doesn't add up. Even when things return to normal I am now very happy with my 0.05% savings account income. In my opinion P2P is a mugs game as when you look under the bonnet of many loans, the risks are high and the interest offered barely reflects this even in good times. When external events happen, and when you look at history they do with surprising regularity and the size of them appears to be getting bigger as the world gets more interconnected, then investors get hammered. I think the P2P industry will try to do a new message of 'yeah ok people lost money but that was a once in a century event and now we are back on track'. Not for me thanks. Also I think that being able to sleep at night is really underrated.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on May 2, 2020 8:12:08 GMT
So it seems the fundamental problem with the who P2P model, from an investor perspective, is that in P2P, when a crisis comes (as they regularly do, like migrating birds not black swans) the loan is owned in part by one individual person, and that person - the P - -takes the loss. In a financial crisis, the banks themselves who are holding the loans have huge leveage over the government to get a bail out, as they can say they are holding the economy hostage because they will crash the payments system if they go down. They are systemically important. You, as a P2P p, have no such leverage. So the losses will land on you. This is the problem with P2P.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2020 11:59:06 GMT
Noticed the "shorters" are being quiet ! Yes Keitha, I was going to say the same, when share drop, we have numerous messages, when share is moving from 22 to 135 , none .... If they think that the price of a share is going to fall, it is common practice for investors to sell at one price intending to buy back in at a lower price. Shorting is a variation on this theme whereby players do not actually own the shares they are gaming with but borrow the shares from a third party, sell them, and buy back in at a lower price. I doubt that there are any FC short players amongst the posters to this thread. If however your comment is directed at people who have commented negatively on the FC share price in the past, then I am one of those people. I have not gone away. However, there is no purpose in posting the same message every week. In previous postings (see below), in the pre virus environment, my prediction for the FC share price was for it to fall through the 50p floor by August 2020, for it to fall through the 25p floor by August 2021, and for the shares to be virtually worthless by August 2022. Not only do I stand by those pre-virus predictions, I also stand by them in the post-virus environment despite whatever short term fillip FC may gain from the Government’s virus loan scheme. There are red lights flashing all around FC which to my mind are saying that it is an outfit in deep trouble. Some of the red lights (but not all of them)……. After all these years, their UK operations have still not made a profit. In all their flashy annual results presentations, I cannot find any meaningful commentary on how they are going to move into profit. In all their flashy annual results presentations, I cannot find any meaningful commentary on how they intend to manage relationships with retail investors like the posters to this forum. The investment trust is being wound up because actual performance did not match up the original FC hype. In their last flashy annual presentation, I cannot find any meaningful commentary on how they intend to get the share price back up to the IPO level. The implementation of their continental European expansion seems to have failed at a big cost to FC which calls into question the quality of their business judgement and project management. The quality of their customer service is variable and they do not even seem to be aware that it is problematic. In their last annual accounts presentation, their IPO cash pile had reduced substantively, seemingly to fund loans – although it is possible that these loans have subsequently been packaged and now sold on. If their IPO cash pile has not come back recently, then it is legitimate to ask if the date at which the IPO cash will have been burned through has moved substantively forward. Such red lights remain flashing irrespective of the share price level. To reference back to recent share price movements, there was recently a very substantive hike in the share price although it has now fallen back quite a way. Such a rise in the share price means either that buyers took a much different view of the FC prospects than I do or that they did not really know FC and were just gambling. As I do not know the buyers, I cannot say what their motivations were but would expect that some of them were gambling that the Government virus loan scheme would be very profitable for FC. The market for FC shares seems to be relatively thin with not a lot of buying or selling activity. There is a wide bid to offer margin which indicates that the market makers are not holding much stock and / or are not able to ascertain a meaningful pricing floor for FC shares. These are the sorts of factors that contribute to share price volatility. I do not believe that the size of the share price hike was justified by any short term benefit from the Government virus loan scheme and that there was an overreaction in the market. Only time will tell if I am correct. In the meantime, I still stand by my prediction that the share price will fall through 50p in August. I will post again in August to confirm whether I was correct or not in this prediction. ******************************** My posting on 12.03.2020 was as follows Whilst the general stock market situation is obviously an influence on the current FC share price, I think to fair to say that even without it FC would have breached the 50p floor that was my prediction for 4th August 2020. Yet again FC think they can bamboozle everyone by their endless presentations of graphics and charts in the full year reporting, thereby not addressing in their presentations the fact that they can still not get their business model to work. The Balance Sheet gives the estimated value of the FC business in the theoretical situation that it was liquidated on Balance Sheet day. To cut through all the FC verbiage and excessive presentation, there are two figures that say it all. The Total Equity section of the FC Balance Sheet represents the value of the business accruing to shareholders in the event of a corporate liquidation. The Total Equity number fell from £401m in 2018 to £319 in 2019. In other words, Samir and his happy band of Thought Leaders demolished £82m (20%) of shareholder value from 2018 to 2019. Although I had not posted these numbers to this thread, my predictions for the FC share price were for it to fall through the 25p floor by 4th August 2021 and for it to be game over by 4th August 2022. Way to go all you FC Thought Leaders!!
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