Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Nov 28, 2019 12:34:16 GMT
Look what the previous post did to the share price!
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Post by Mr Smith on Dec 24, 2019 8:39:00 GMT
Hitting new lows this week
86.80 GBX −3.20 (3.56%)
That's down 65% since the thread was started and down around 80% from peak !!!
Nothing to see here, move along.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 24, 2019 9:42:38 GMT
Hitting new lows this week 86.80 GBX −3.20 (3.56%) That's down 65% since the thread was started and down around 80% from peak !!! Nothing to see here, move along. FC has a book value of 108p per share. You could buy the company, liquidate it and make a 24% profit.
Analysts that cover it value it at over 300p per share.
At this level if you bung a grand in you could lose a grand or make 2 grand, so maybe worth a punt. Very few companies trade below book value.
Now if you ask those poor folks trying to flog their cr@p cohort loans, they would say its worth slightly less than a half eaten Mars bar.
And that's what makes a market.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Dec 24, 2019 13:50:45 GMT
don't you all feel foolish with a buy price as of now at £4.10 yes I know the sellprice is 86.7P
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trevor
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Post by trevor on Dec 24, 2019 17:29:10 GMT
I wouldn’t pay much attention to “book value” of FC. The cash value (cash and cash equivalents on balance sheet) at year end which is about a week away is probably going to be about 80p. That’s the only meaningful accounting value on the balance sheet. It’s certainly the most meaningful number to lenders who can relax that the FC business should in all likelihood to be around for five or so years to see the five year loans drawing down currently reach end of term. What makes you say it should be around for 5 years? Last report I read showed that it was burning cash at a horrendous rate and needed major cost cutting to achieve break even.
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Post by davee39 on Dec 25, 2019 10:29:40 GMT
If you think company reports are in any way based on fact you must be an Auditor. Accounts are dressed up to give a snapshot on one day of the year, then all the apparent cash gets squirreled back away.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Dec 26, 2019 15:39:09 GMT
Most seasoned investors on this forum accept that at some point FC will run out of road.
How and when time will tell – a takeover from someone thinking that they can do something with the wreckage or a voluntary liquidation and run off of the loan book under regulators guidance etc.
As almost everyone has given up on FC the prime concern is will FC be active long enough to cash out. Running down my loans since Sept 2017 I need another 30 months to be completely clear.
The big issue then is recoveries. I will still have several £k in recovery some of which will take generations. The risk to recovery is that when FC finally folds no one will be interested in chasing the same.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 26, 2019 16:33:52 GMT
course they will - once interest rates go up there will be a jump in bad debts, the crisis in P2P will grow (Funding Secure is the latest one to go under) and the whole industry will take a hammering. At this point the FCA may actually do something so the market can recover on a sound footing.
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bg
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Post by bg on Dec 27, 2019 9:34:55 GMT
course they will - once interest rates go up there will be a jump in bad debts, the crisis in P2P will grow (Funding Secure is the latest one to go under) and the whole industry will take a hammering. At this point the FCA may actually do something so the market can recover on a sound footing. Interest rates are (generally) raised when the economy is strengthening and as such an increase in the bank rate should coincide with a reduction in bad debts. What I would imagine would push them under would be if they continued to originate further down the credit spectrum to boost market share, lowering average returns so more lenders voted with their feet OR a big downturn in the economy (with rates actually being cut) meaning that more of their borrowers ran into difficulty so bad debts did indeed shoot up, again lowering average returns. Either way there would have to be big changes to get me to consider investing again.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 27, 2019 14:57:45 GMT
They dont want retail investors anymore. They are expensive to service, are fickle, and often unaware of p2p risks. Increasingly p2p will be dominated by funds that appreciate its diversification from equity type returns.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Dec 27, 2019 18:03:32 GMT
They dont want retail investors anymore. They are expensive to service, are fickle, and often unaware of p2p risks. Increasingly p2p will be dominated by funds that appreciate its diversification from equity type returns. Misses the point we are all making. FC viability is not about where it sources its supply of lender funds but what it then does with them. FC has a fractured business model in which if it goes for quality borrowers then it cannot grow at a rate to ever make a profit. If however it goes for low grade borrowers then FC grows its loan book but lenders loose out through defaults whether they are retail of institutional. They then walk away. Either way FC is toast at some point. The latter is what happened between 2016 and 2018. What the 2019 loan book looks like is anyone’s guess.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Dec 27, 2019 18:06:52 GMT
They dont want retail investors anymore. They are expensive to service, are fickle, and often unaware of p2p risks. Increasingly p2p will be dominated by funds that appreciate its diversification from equity type returns. IMHO it's hardly P2P if funds are the lender
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 27, 2019 21:00:56 GMT
IMHO it isn't P2p when you have no control over who you lend to either, which let's most of the companies on this forum out right away.
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Mucho P2P
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Post by Mucho P2P on Dec 27, 2019 22:02:42 GMT
IMHO it isn't P2p when you have no control over who you lend to either, which let's most of the companies on this forum out right away. Agree fully, If the lender can not chose who to lend to and the choice is made by a P2P company, then that company is operating as an asset management company.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Dec 28, 2019 17:54:26 GMT
They dont want retail investors anymore. They are expensive to service, are fickle, and often unaware of p2p risks. Increasingly p2p will be dominated by funds that appreciate its diversification from equity type returns. the main reason they don't want retail investors anymore is that, in addition to your other reasons, they expect to be able to get access to their funds immediately. Lending for 5 years and borrowing on call is not a balanced lending model!
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