ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 21, 2019 16:33:56 GMT
Blimey!
Sometimes I wake up Grumpy.
And sometimes I let him sleep...
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Oct 21, 2019 17:03:48 GMT
The loans under management total shown in the update had to increase as the loans being written in 2019 will of course be higher than the amounts being paid back from loans written in 2013, 2014 etc. No useful information here then.
Key figure is the Q3 new loans originated which actually fell £5m on 2018. This figure is IMO a disaster and shows that FC may have ceased to grow. Given the high operational gearing in the FC business model then there is no chance of positive earnings in the foreseeable future.
What is missing is the rate of cash burn. Assume we will not see this until March 2020. This will be key as an indicator of when FC will need a new funding round.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 21, 2019 17:13:20 GMT
Q3 ‘18 they were ramping ahead of IPO.
Q3 ‘19 they are being more prudent as they managed to get their £300M.
ZOPA also looks ex growth to me. This is now an industry looking at 10% to 20% growth pa for the mature players - still a bl00dy good growth rate!
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 31, 2019 11:18:09 GMT
Not sure why the share price dropped. The new tool is better for FC financials encouraging more lenders.
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 31, 2019 12:28:00 GMT
Shows that they are in trouble which will not just go away given time.
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trevor
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Post by trevor on Oct 31, 2019 22:14:49 GMT
Investors taking profits against the recent rise I think
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Nov 5, 2019 8:58:08 GMT
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Nov 11, 2019 19:13:13 GMT
Anyone got any views on how assertz capital is doing so much better than funding circle? They appear to be lending to similar businesses. Of course they to could start to see bad debt rise in the next few months but as yet no sign of it.
I was in funding circle along time ago and getting 15.7% return (mainly from selling loans on secondary market). I gave it up as it was to much like hard work (sniping at the end of an auction). When I went back to invest some money for someone else (about 2/3 years ago) it looked very dodgy. I sacked it after 6 months.
The share price is in the 90p region a disaster for shareholders. As opposed to lenders.
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upland
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Post by upland on Nov 12, 2019 7:11:47 GMT
Indeed AC is of some interest to me as its the only p2p lender of that style that I have any money in. All the rest I have unloaded what I can & am left with some illiquid loans , mercifully not too much.
When things went wrong with Lendy everything clammed up and there must have been no loans to pay Lendy anything. Also true of FS and others I think. I find AC to be fairly vibrant with new loans coming along as old ones complete. I do note that earnings are down recently but it is still active for me. I have a bit more faith in ACs managers (but one can be wrong).
For me my income from FC has gone down in the last year or so quite a lot. Company share prices are usually more volatile than the fundamentals would suggest so I cannot say I am surprised at it.
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bg
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Post by bg on Nov 12, 2019 7:18:43 GMT
Anyone got any views on how assertz capital is doing so much better than funding circle? They appear to be lending to similar businesses. Of course they to could start to see bad debt rise in the next few months but as yet no sign of it. I was in funding circle along time ago and getting 15.7% return (mainly from selling loans on secondary market). I gave it up as it was to much like hard work (sniping at the end of an auction). When I went back to invest some money for someone else (about 2/3 years ago) it looked very dodgy. I sacked it after 6 months. The share price is in the 90p region a disaster for shareholders. As opposed to lenders. FC makes unsecured loans. AC makes loans secured against property and does much better DD.
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Post by 2naphish on Nov 12, 2019 7:20:46 GMT
AC do have security on all their loans, which makes me feel more comfortable. They also have the 'discretionary fund'to cover defaults (although it's debatable how useful that would actually be in practice).
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Nov 12, 2019 9:56:32 GMT
AC do have security on all their loans, which makes me feel more comfortable. They also have the 'discretionary fund'to cover defaults (although it's debatable how useful that would actually be in practice). Security is only as good as the LTV valuation which has been appalling at times with AC. You clearly have not been invested in Ipswich, Epping, Angelsey, the London Greek bloke etc etc.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Nov 12, 2019 10:02:22 GMT
Not sure why the share price dropped. The new tool is better for FC financials encouraging more lenders. The share price dropped because FC is basically worthless. The new tool is like adding new chrome bumpers to a Trabant (or Lada take your pick).
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Nov 12, 2019 10:40:29 GMT
Not sure why the share price dropped. The new tool is better for FC financials encouraging more lenders. The share price dropped because FC is basically worthless. The new tool is like adding new chrome bumpers to a Trabant (or Lada take your pick). What nonsense. Read the latest update. FC has certainly underperformed, but is on track to grow revenues at 20%. yes, they hyped the IPO, just like Uber, Lyft, wework etc. FC is certainly not worthless, and in fact the market values it currently at £350M. A little less opinion and a little more fact would be welcome.
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blender
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Post by blender on Nov 12, 2019 10:42:59 GMT
The new tool is not an embellishment, it's there to hide the general poor liquidity by repaying small regular installments of each withdrawal request. So perhaps more like painting over the rust on the Trabant. I agree that FC is worthless because the model has failed. They cannot afford the resources to properly supervise the amount of poor lending which results from computer-based due diligence on unsecured loans. The sorting hat is too easily fooled.
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