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Post by Ace on Mar 13, 2020 12:05:02 GMT
The calculated 4.2% return is a lifetime rate, not an annualised rate. So, even if that level of recoveries was achieved, it would be much lower than the predicted annualised return range once the 7 years taken to achieve those recoveries was accounted for.
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Post by cinereus on Mar 20, 2020 18:26:12 GMT
Well, my lifetime now is 56k interest, 5k fees, 46K DEFAULTS and 3k recoveries. 1.4% lifetime. What are your figures for other platforms?
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Mar 20, 2020 18:29:33 GMT
For Zopa and Assetz I sold a month or so ago and had no major problems, so got out intact. But amounts much smaller, 12.5k in each.
For Ratesetter I am just in the process of selling now. Seems to me the fund will be exhausted and losses will kick in, so can't say what real return is yet.
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criston
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Post by criston on Mar 20, 2020 19:16:33 GMT
I set up my sale in Ratesetter on 16/3/20.
Someone reported on another thread they set up a Ratesetter sale on 9/3/20 which completed today.
My stated rate on Ratesetter is 6.3%, but I would rather be out.
Tonight's Government employee retainment payout may decrease defaults at least.
I also have Zopa & Lending Works sales set up on 16/3/20. Don't know why I waited so long.
Lending Works hit me with 3% rate difference fees, saying they need it to replenish their provision fund.
Ratesetter has the provision fund, but the majority of my Zopa funds are not protected.
Luckily my Assetz funds were not in the Access funds, which appear to be on a similar withdrawal system as FC.
Most of my funds are secured by property. As long as house prices don't drop over 40%, should be OK'
What a mess though.
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richv
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Post by richv on Mar 24, 2020 15:45:32 GMT
Wow Rich, hope springs eternal as they say. I have no idea how anyone can come up with 40% after 7 years as nobody has experience of the risky cohorts that far out. The quality of the loan book massively deteriorated once they turned off discretion to get ready for the IPO and all through 2019. So nobody has any 7 year experience with these crappy 2018 and 2019 loans. The quality of earlier cohorts seemed to be far higher. My experience with recoveries is as follows: August 2019 -- bad debts of 26k, recoveries of 2k March 2020 -- bad debts of 46k, recoveries of 2.9k So if you assume FIFO, then of the bad debts of 26k only £900 was recovered in the last 7 months. In the meantime an additional 20k of loans went bad. Seriously, you can forget ever getting 40%, once a loan has gone bad for 18 months you basically aren't getting anything. FC put the bad loans out to agencies and there is only a certain amount of work it is worth them putting into it. In fact, how these agencies are incentivised is never disclosed to us but you can bet they won't want to be fighting 6 -7 year legal battles. Good afternoon Shanghaiscouse, Gosh if 20K of my loans had defaulted in 6 months I would be livid, so for what its worth, big sympathy. I was not going to reply, because everybody situation will be different, its hard to make predictions in the middle of a pandemic, and internet conversations an not all ways productive. But I'm stuck at home with time on my hand, so I thought I would offer my experience, feel free to ignore, after all any passed experience will now have to factor in this COVID thing! I started investing in spring 2013, and had my first default latter that year, I had very positive results up until the Black Box was introduced, foolishly I invested a big amount just before the black box went live in September 17. With a lot of defaults in 2018 I decided to pull out in Feb 19 just as the delayed selling started, but had most of my investment out by about May 19, the rest all late, has slowly wittered down, mostly defaulting with a few late payments and an occatioanl one going live and then selling. I now have £8,500 defaulted in total, and a total net earning of £1,700, but going up every month. I would have had over £5,000 if I had sold up the day of the black box! My first default was in 2013, about 18 still outstanding at the time, but they are still repaying, at 7p a month, it will take 20 ish years to fully repay, by which time ether the platform, the borrower or Myself will probably be dead, but an income stream is an income stream. This is simplified but I think defaulted loans can be split in to 3 types. 1) Lone defaults 3-6 months later a one off payment that pays most of the outstanding amount back, presumably this is when the company sells whatever assess it used the lone to buy. best outcome but not very common, only about 5% of the loans 2) Lone defaults and 3-8 months later they start a repayment plan, that may be close to the original repayment amount or may be a lot less less, I think these are voluntary repayment agreements with FC and avoid the collection agency bankruptcy posses. I think about 40% of my defaults have done this, and almost all are still repaying. 3 Lone defaults and nothing re-payed quickly, recovery agency/bankruptcy follows. at the end of which: a) occasionally there is a big pay out, including outstanding interest (only happens twice for me) b) More often there is a much smaller final payout, c) and sometimes all the money has been spent of legal fees and collection agency fees so nothing to pay to us. I think this apply to about 50% of defaulter loans, and time scale is difficult to estimate 18 moths might be average, but as I am still waiting on many I don't know. As you say, just because loans that defaulted 7 years ago have replayed 40% does not mean that the ones defaulting now will, but equally they may, more defaulters is not the same as saying the average default will behave differently, we don't know, the overall pattern may be similer but with a few more falling in to type 3 and espeshaley type 3c, bringing the 40% down a bit but still close, COVID has after all made any prediction much more speculative. Where did I get the 40% from, I don't pluck it form the air, there have been 3 posters on this forum that have calmed they have tracked there loans repayment form the early days IIRC one thought he had 50% back, and second 42% and a third 31%, I did not have enough to make a reasonable estimate. so I just averaged these rounded down and that seemed reasonable to my own account. Out of £8,500 defaulted (mostly form late 2018 and early 2019) I now have £1100 recovered, 40% would be £3400, so £2,300 to go. my recovery have been rising every month for a year now with Feb 20 being my best yet £90 recovered, so if it continued I would hit 40% in 2 and a bit years. most of that £90 are loans that fit in to category 2, it may well be that my recoverys have now peaked and will attenuate down, (espeshaly with COVID) but getting to 40% within 7 years of selling up seems reasonable to me. One thing you could do, would be to track your total recovery per month, and see if its going up. this might provide a better indication than looking at recovery is a time period and comparing them to the amount of new defaults. Hope this was vaguely interesting even if you don't find in helpful.
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richv
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Post by richv on Mar 24, 2020 16:11:16 GMT
The calculated 4.2% return is a lifetime rate, not an annualised rate. So, even if that level of recoveries was achieved, it would be much lower than the predicted annualised return range once the 7 years taken to achieve those recoveries was accounted for. Good afternoon Ace, Sorry, but no, I disagree with your statement. being dyslectic I not very good with words and may not have explain myself well, but I'm normally pritty good at the maths. lets keep things simple if you invested 1 million, and exactly a year later you sold everything you could had took out £1,014,000 that's £14K 'profit' so 1.4% if you had invested half a million but sold up exactly 2 years latter, but also with 14% that is still 1.4% and a third of a million for 3 years so on for other amounts. if 2 or 7 years latter there is another 28K in the account from recoverys that would make 42K in total 'profit' so 4.2% interest on the original investment. There is some small difference, (interest on the interest) but 4.2% on 28k is only about 1K so only 0.1%, so 0.7% difference over 7 years, but if you take out the money regularly instead of waiting all 7 years then this is halved to 0.35% and if you assume that there will be much more in year 1 and 2 than year 6 and 7, then even that comes down even more. I would say that the 7 year delay in getting all the money out does reduces the recovery % but by a trivial amount. All this is predicated on being able to sell in one go, which as we know is not the case at the moment, so a rather academic anyway. Hope that is helpful, but let me know if you disagree with my analysis.
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Post by Ace on Mar 24, 2020 17:02:18 GMT
The calculated 4.2% return is a lifetime rate, not an annualised rate. So, even if that level of recoveries was achieved, it would be much lower than the predicted annualised return range once the 7 years taken to achieve those recoveries was accounted for. Good afternoon Ace, Sorry, but no, I disagree with your statement. being dyslectic I not very good with words and may not have explain myself well, but I'm normally pritty good at the maths. lets keep things simple if you invested 1 million, and exactly a year later you sold everything you could had took out £1,014,000 that's £14K 'profit' so 1.4% if you had invested half a million but sold up exactly 2 years latter, but also with 14% that is still 1.4% and a third of a million for 3 years so on for other amounts. if 2 or 7 years latter there is another 28K in the account from recoverys that would make 42K in total 'profit' so 4.2% interest on the original investment. There is some small difference, (interest on the interest) but 4.2% on 28k is only about 1K so only 0.1%, so 0.7% difference over 7 years, but if you take out the money regularly instead of waiting all 7 years then this is halved to 0.35% and if you assume that there will be much more in year 1 and 2 than year 6 and 7, then even that comes down even more. I would say that the 7 year delay in getting all the money out does reduces the recovery % but by a trivial amount. All this is predicated on being able to sell in one go, which as we know is not the case at the moment, so a rather academic anyway. Hope that is helpful, but let me know if you disagree with my analysis. Hi richv, Sorry, I misinterpreted your " 4.2% (eventual lifetime)" as 4.2% lifetime return, rather than as 4.2 annualised lifetime rate, as I didn't check your working. If I were to get returns of anywhere near 4.2% XIRR from any of my 3 accounts funded in 2018, I would be very happy,
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Mar 24, 2020 19:12:40 GMT
richv above - at one time I had over 1,300 loan parts so I should come pretty close to holding an 'average' of the 2017/18 loan book. My monthly recovered amount barely changes. Since last August it has not gone above £3k total whilst bad debts have gone from £26 to now almost £50k. I just don't see any evidence that I will recover anything close to 20%, let alone 40%. Maybe other posters had smaller amounts invested, I had £280k at the peak.
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Post by dazp70 on Mar 30, 2020 12:53:49 GMT
Just has a massive number of loans with risk bands removed as the direct debits have been cancelled. 30 loans in 1 day.
£875 worth of loans on ISA and £658 on Classic. Overall loss on the day of £1533. Expecting more losses to come. Around 6% percent of the portfolio gone bad in 1 day.
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morris
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Post by morris on Mar 30, 2020 16:32:53 GMT
Just has a massive number of loans with risk bands removed as the direct debits have been cancelled. 30 loans in 1 day. £875 worth of loans on ISA and £658 on Classic. Overall loss on the day of £1533. Expecting more losses to come. Around 6% percent of the portfolio gone bad in 1 day. This must be the nail in the FS Coffin. The FS model can't work at a time of stress
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 30, 2020 19:16:09 GMT
I assume you meant FC, not FS. FS is already buried.... Well., at the undertakers anyway.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Mar 31, 2020 8:27:11 GMT
Just has a massive number of loans with risk bands removed as the direct debits have been cancelled. 30 loans in 1 day. £875 worth of loans on ISA and £658 on Classic. Overall loss on the day of £1533. Expecting more losses to come. Around 6% percent of the portfolio gone bad in 1 day. I have only had one default this March as opposed to 10 defaults in March 2019, 2018 and 2017. Risk bands removed are however up at 45 and I have 34 loans running late. It seems that FC are giving borrowers an unannounced payment holiday to see them through the recession and to show excellent default stats performance for this March.
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Post by rweb on Mar 31, 2020 9:03:42 GMT
Just catching up with this thread and the various aspects of chaos.
I have 7.3% of my portfolio in my classic account downgraded yesterday due to cancellation of borrower direct debits. I don't dare check the ISA :-(
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 31, 2020 9:54:49 GMT
Just has a massive number of loans with risk bands removed as the direct debits have been cancelled. 30 loans in 1 day. £875 worth of loans on ISA and £658 on Classic. Overall loss on the day of £1533. Expecting more losses to come. Around 6% percent of the portfolio gone bad in 1 day. It seems that FC are giving borrowers an unannounced payment holiday to see them through the recession and to show excellent default stats performance for this March. Just touching on this, Lending Crowd have just announced a borrower facility of 3-month payment holidays (subject to review and latest financials). Interest continues to accrue. Presumably similar with FC, but yes definitely some comms due if so.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Apr 1, 2020 17:14:56 GMT
6%
you lucky sod 25% by number and value in 2 days
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