empirica
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Post by empirica on Aug 6, 2018 10:20:10 GMT
Some other platforms would like stats so good. Capital Losses: | 0 | Avg interest earned PCM: | 0.90% | Avg interest earned PA: | 10.80% | Average loan size: | £212,000 | Average loan term: | 9 months | Avg time until overdue loans are repaid: | 3 months | Average loan to value: | 59.20% | Loans to companies: | 8% | Loans to individuals: | 92% | 1st Charge loans: | 42% | 2nd Charge loans: | 58% |
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| Percentage of loans that... |
| Repay on or before the loan term: | 75.10% | Require / offered an extension: | 24.90% | Security repossessed and sold by receivers
| 0.90% | Percentage of interest that is returned during default period | 100% | Percentage of loans where full capital and all interest is returned | 100% |
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 6, 2018 20:57:50 GMT
Yes it does look good although in my short experience with BC the first two loans due to repay have both overrun. I think the stats say the chances of that is just 6.2% so I must be really unlucky.
I'm also slightly frustrated that BC haven't engaged on the forum for a long while. I'm not sure whether it is because they are unable or because they are actually unwilling.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 7, 2018 20:22:04 GMT
Just to follow up. Apparently they are now able to access the forum and when Louis gets a moment he'll read and post as appropriate but could be a week or three.
I was very happy to hear that !
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phil
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Post by phil on Aug 8, 2018 11:24:07 GMT
Yes it does look good although in my short experience with BC the first two loans due to repay have both overrun. I think the stats say the chances of that is just 6.2% so I must be really unlucky. According to the above stats 75.1% repay on or before the loan term, therefore surely 24.9% overrun? That is reflected in my investments where I'm currently at around 25% overrun.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 8, 2018 12:23:43 GMT
Yes it does look good although in my short experience with BC the first two loans due to repay have both overrun. I think the stats say the chances of that is just 6.2% so I must be really unlucky. According to the above stats 75.1% repay on or before the loan term, therefore surely 24.9% overrun? That is reflected in my investments where I'm currently at around 25% overrun. Yes probably since you probably have a more statistically significant amount of loans that had gone to term. My 6.2% was based purely on my first two that had completed and if the probability of one overruning is 24.9% then the probabiltyy of both loans overruning is 24.9% x 24.9% = 6.2%. Hence why I said I must have been unlucky. Good to know anecdotally at least that other investor's figures bare out the official BC figures.
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phil
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Post by phil on Aug 8, 2018 19:27:21 GMT
According to the above stats 75.1% repay on or before the loan term, therefore surely 24.9% overrun? That is reflected in my investments where I'm currently at around 25% overrun. Yes probably since you probably have a more statistically significant amount of loans that had gone to term. My 6.2% was based purely on my first two that had completed and if the probability of one overruning is 24.9% then the probabiltyy of both loans overruning is 24.9% x 24.9% = 6.2%. Hence why I said I must have been unlucky. Good to know anecdotally at least that other investor's figures bare out the official BC figures. In your favour is the statistic of thus far 100% return of capital and interest so don't call yourself unlucky yet .... call yourself unlucky if your first two investments prove to be BC's first two loss makers
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 8, 2018 20:53:46 GMT
That's the same claim that Lendy and most all of p2p makes isn't it? But yes I did wonder if "unlucky" was the right adjective given if they go a bit late my interest might increase
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phil
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Post by phil on Aug 9, 2018 11:11:44 GMT
That's the same claim that Lendy and most all of p2p makes isn't it? But yes I did wonder if "unlucky" was the right adjective given if they go a bit late my interest might increase I think with BC it's more of a statement of fact than a claim. A fundamental difference between BC and Lendy et al. is the quality of the loans. The vast majority of BC's are non-speculative where the established residential property is easy to do due diligence on. This is reflected in the lower interest rates we receive from BC compared to Lendy or FS, we are taking less risk than investing in a Whitehaven hole in the wall, a Scottish boatyard or a wind turbine.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 24, 2018 15:23:25 GMT
So my first four loans due have gone like this:
late
late
repaid on time
late
I can't be bothered to dig out my binomial distribution texts but that does seem to suggest I've been incredibly unlucky...
It might also be nice to receive an update on the 4/5 of each month as is their aim.
Thankfully, I'm still reasonably relaxed as I would expect a lot of these loans to be "late".
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phil
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Post by phil on Aug 26, 2018 8:39:55 GMT
So my first four loans due have gone like this: late late repaid on time late I can't be bothered to dig out my binomial distribution texts but that does seem to suggest I've been incredibly unlucky... It might also be nice to receive an update on the 4/5 of each month as is their aim. Thankfully, I'm still reasonably relaxed as I would expect a lot of these loans to be "late". Oh, you're back on your hobby horse It will be interesting to follow your "incredibly unlucky" saga.... the average wait for overdue loans to pay is 3 months so let's see if all three of your late loans go over the 3 months mark. The next stage will be the 0.9% of loans are repossessed, if all three are repossessed then I will certainly raise an eyebrow....the final statistic to break is the 100% return of capital, if you manage to break that statistic on all three loans then yes, I will agree, incredibly unlucky.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 26, 2018 15:16:53 GMT
I mean unlucky in the statistical sense versus the official statistics which say around 75% of loans are repaid on time.
I try to be as constructively critical as I can which is why I said I'm I'm reasonably relaxed about it. I believe it is healthy to continually ask questions and have (constructive) debate.
I don't go around accusing others of being on "hobby horses".
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phil
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Post by phil on Aug 27, 2018 18:12:50 GMT
I mean unlucky in the statistical sense versus the official statistics which say around 75% of loans are repaid on time. I try to be as constructively critical as I can which is why I said I'm I'm reasonably relaxed about it. I believe it is healthy to continually ask questions and have (constructive) debate. I don't go around accusing others of being on "hobby horses". Except you're being ridiculously critical by expecting your first four loans to exactly replicate historic platform statistics stretching back several years. This is the fourth time you've carped on about it in this thread, I'm fully entitled to regard it as a hobby horse of yours. Constructive criticism is one thing, casting ridiculous comments about your first four loans is another. Further, for you to cast critical comments such as "that's the same claim that Lendy and most all of p2p makes isn't it?" on 8th August in this thread is of no critical use whatsoever unless you can back it up with evidence that BC has lost investor capital. The BC platform is aimed at high net worth investors, fund and wealth managers, the type of investor who having carefully taken the decision to invest doesn't then start regaling everyone about the minutiae of their first four loans meeting statistical evidence. May I humbly suggest if you wish to impart constructive criticism then you follow the example of an earlier thread about the cottage in Swanage, that was a good example of a helpful and constructive post, also the threads about client money are useful. Finally, another criticism of yours is Louis coming on this forum to answer comments, on August 6th you stated "I'm also slightly frustrated that BC haven't engaged on the forum for a long while". If you want to encourage him to come on then I suggest you act as a professional investor, willing to take the knocks statistically as well as the rewards...and avoid unfair criticism and aspersions on this forum about BC statistics unless you can prove to us the given statistics at the start of this thread are wrong.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 27, 2018 18:47:41 GMT
I actually helped Louis regain his access to the platform and my understanding is he will be writing something shortly.
Think you need to chill a bit.
I shan't carry on this debate any further as you clearly are motivated to spend time trawling through my historic posts and attack me for them.
Edit: Hopefully got in just in time before you see this since I won't be adding anything else. It seems to me you are annoyed because I made public my first four loans that came due. I was mildly concerned having seen the historic statistics. Why is it so terrible to make my experience public? There is no underlying agenda hobby horse of any kind - I have a fair chunk in BC and have every reasons to see it successful..
I will however, question without fear. That is what happened to me and it seemed different to the stats so I thought I would solicit others' opinions. Simple as that. I did not expect to be attacked for doing so.
If you had asked which loans they were, I would have happily supplied the numbers but it seems you're not interested because I think you think I am just having a go at BC for no reason. Well pretty hard to supply proof they were my first loans other than seeing if Louis can confirm which would be seem a bit unfair to ask him to do that for obvious reasons.
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Post by Jack Barlow on Aug 29, 2018 10:02:55 GMT
So my first four loans due have gone like this: late late repaid on time late I can't be bothered to dig out my binomial distribution texts but that does seem to suggest I've been incredibly unlucky... It might also be nice to receive an update on the 4/5 of each month as is their aim. Thankfully, I'm still reasonably relaxed as I would expect a lot of these loans to be "late". michaelc My first few BC loans were late but resulted in full recovery including default interest with no fuss, so I think you are right to be reasonably relaxed at this stage. Regarding the statistics, P(X>=3)=5.0% for X~B(4,1-0.751) where X=number of late loans in sample. So you’d expect 1 in 20 of BC lenders to have the same or worse late performance for their first four loans as you have, assuming loan selection is independent, past history is representative of current history, etc. On that basis I’d subjectively say that you are somewhere between “unlucky” and “really unlucky” but not “incredibly unlucky”! [I'm currently teaching the binomial distribution and hypothesis testing to one of my students so have used your post as an example problem – thanks!]
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Monetus
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Post by Monetus on Aug 29, 2018 10:12:26 GMT
If you want an investor example on a larger sample size of 50+ loans, I have just quickly reviewed my loan book:
- Loans requiring extension / overdue: 21.68%
- Loans where full capital and interest has been returned over the past 2+ years: 100%
BC is currently my largest platform and I am very happy with the returns, due diligence/valuations and management of late loans.
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